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PCTEL, Inc. Message Board

  • gulleyj56 gulleyj56 May 20, 2013 12:57 PM Flag

    gas, Commander et al

    Commander, UNG doesn't want to give up and roll over. Whither goest it? (Seeing the UNG symbol made me think of the old Monty Python joke: "What's brown and sounds like a bell?" "Duuunnng")

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    • Bout of hot weather has NG demand up vs normal end of May/early June weather. In mid-Michigan today, I was running in low 90's heat this afternoon. Forecast into early June is more of same. WPX, ECA, UPL and DVN all doing well.

      Gold and silver had nice reversals to the upside today. It was noted in several articles that the net short position for gold hit an all-time high last week. Also, just about all of the miners I follow are performing better-higher RSI's-than GLD. I am not suggesting that gold has bottomed yet, but if/when it does the miners should way outperform GLD because of positive operating leverage-especially after their 2013 emphasis of lowering costs-2014-2105 could be great EPS growth years.

      Longer term, I expect gold to behave similarly to NG. Recent low price has many miners reducing capX which will lead to production declines later this year and into 2014-yet increases in world paper currencies will likely continue in the mid to high single digit % area. So, with new supplies of gold in decline, and paper currencies still in growth mode, the value of gold should increase relative to those paper currencies. It may take inflation another 6-18 months around the world to heat up, but when it does gold will off to the races again. In the meantime, it would be "healthy" for gold to finish down in 2013 to break the string of yearly advances. Ultimate price objective-2014/2016- $3000-$5000/oz.

      • 1 Reply to commandor58
      • commandor, I hope you enjoyed the heat! Nothing I like better than a 40 mile bicycle ride with temps in the high 80+ range.

        I followed your earlier advice taking a partial position in various miners during the mid-April gold price swoon. I have modest gains to date. I haven't added but am prepared to increase positions 2-3X. Is now the time to consider edging into these buys?

        Fyi, this year's performance to date has been stellar. Not counting chickens though. I wish you all the best.


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