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PCTEL, Inc. Message Board

  • commandor58 commandor58 Jun 19, 2014 12:18 PM Flag

    Calling the Top of the stock market

    Many times a "bell" rings when any actively traded market reaches a top or a bottom. I'm calling the "top" of the broader averages of stocks because the "bell" I hear is the Patent office invalidating the patent of the Washington Redskins football team. Quit simply it is another indicator of a government run amuck with political correctness. With this action, along with all the other lies, misuses of government power and other, blunders, investors et all will net/net lose confidence in the US government and $.

    On a different note, gold/silver are higher today based on the notion that real interest rates will go further into negative territory. Going back to 1979, as oil and inflation moved higher, real interest rates got to negative 5%. Gold spiked soon thereafter at $875. Since 2009 real rates have been negative, peaking at -3% in 2011-gold peaked at $1923. Real rates are currently negative about -2%. It has been my observation that gold accelerates to the upside when rates go negative -2.5% So, should the 5-7 yr government bond go down in yield and official government measures of inflation go up, then when the difference gets to -2.5% and/or when the market expects -2.5%, then gold/silver take off. At -3.0% real interest rates, gold/silver will make new highs.

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