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Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Message Board

  • osubucki19 osubucki19 Nov 22, 2008 7:35 PM Flag

    bankruptcy in 1 year for ANF

    This company will file for bankruptcy in about a year from now. Only a miracle will be able to save this company so start selling your shares now...as you will see the stock will have "up ticks" but will eventually crash.

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    • Hey, I just asked you to back-up your statement that Gilly Hicks isn't doing well with some sort of "fact" or "evidence" but apparently you don't have any facts based on your response. That's okay, I've been reading the ANF board for years, so if it goes up after earnings, you are of course free to short it, as you've said you intend to do, just like the people who shorted it all the way from $28 to $75 during the last recovery.

    • Sounds like you are one of the lucky few that survived the latest cuts at corporate! Good luck next quarter when the axe comes around again.

    • What are you basing your comments about GH's performance? The stores have been open less than half a year, which is why I think it's too early to comment.

      The fact that you think Hollister is a great brand shows that management knows how to successfully launch new brands.

      They need a successful brand for the targeted Ruehl demographic. I think they got the right theme, but need a better differentiated, higher quality product along with more marketing.

    • All I mean is that kids should be evealuated to get rid of the non performers. "Thin the herd" As far as Ruehl and Glilly I really believe that in todays economy they are backed against the wall! International expansion is where ANF will do best! They should concentrate on that. I cannot tell you how many European visitors come over and want to find an Abercrombie store before they go home. Hollister is slumping now but overall is a great concept.

    • I'm going with what I said yesterday. May option expiration is Friday. I'm getting called out on 9,800 shares of ANR and my last 500 MOS. After that it's short city.

      The coma that wall street is in right now is even worse than it was in 2007. Probably the best book out there on retail analysis is "Ahead of the curve" by Joseph Ellis.

      If you follow his thinking, virtually every factor affecting the market, wage growth, credit expansion, the savings rate, GDP, are all not just negative, but the most negative in modern history.

    • The past IS important because the ability of a company (especially a clothing retailer) to make profits during the worst recession in recent memory speaks to the quality of their management and its ability to guide the company into the future.

      As for the future, this is a global brand that is just starting international expansion. I think you posted somewhere that abercrombie kids, Ruehl, and Gilly Hicks ought to be shut down, so I'm assuming this is your main long-term concern. Too early to judge GH, but do think they ought to take steps to differentiate Ruehl from their other brands and try to better compete with the likes of Banana Republic.

    • Here is how I will play ANF. On Friday after earnings are released.....ANF will either go up or down. pretty good prediction, huh? Anyways, by mid afternoon if stock has run up well I will short! If stock has been really beaten up I will buy! I expect a 10% move either way.

      I expect market to react quite favorably because ANF will beat ridicuously low numbers that were set. Analyst have them at negative numbers. Ridiculous for a company with such high margins. I expect to short for a few week hold. If nothing happens either way then I just sit out!

    • I don't hold Abercrombie. I'm actually thinking of shorting it. I do like the company though.

    • I think we both agree that ANF has been a good "play' for months. However, I am just worried about the direction they are going as a company which will affect there long term value. Earnings that come out this week is for the past! Get over that! I am looking ahead just as all other investers are. No matter what the earnings number will be(I believe that it will be a posite # quite possibly .20-.30) it will be a far cry from what it should have been! Last year we expected that number to be above $1.00. This is why I am not as enchanted with ANF as you are.

    • No, I think the Zombie market crashed after the last 28 Days Later movie.

      But I am especially enthusiastic now that I had a closer look at this thread and realized that the prediction was made on Nov 22/08, right near the multi-year bottom for this stock. So anyone who would have followed the advice in that message would have missed out on a 78% gain, which clearly outperformed the market.

      Yes, you are right, that the declines have been for months. And we have been in a recession for months. The worst declines so far in 2009 were in March, when fear was at an all time high for 12 years. I already said the numbers are better in April, showing an improvement.

      Anyway, we'll all get to see what happens when earnings come out this week!

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