As much as I applauded ANF's last quarter, I think now we can start to short retailers. Their demise has not been reflected in stock prices. Going forward, IMO these companies are going to collapse.
Penny is a disaster. At least once a month they call anybody that'll answer the phone and ask if they'll buy the local store where my office is. Nobody wants it. US retailers are blowing through tangible book. Look at HD. HD had three BLOWOUT years and tangible book FELL. Tangible book [per share has fallen 50% in three years.
Penny lost 1/4th of it's book value in one quarter. What people don;t seem to realize is that these stock buybacks make companies risk buckets. This is why a bad quarter cost ANF 60% of it's share price.
US retail is facing serious headwinds, the most serious being the collapse of the China trade. This can best ne seen in the collapse of Foxconn. If the most profitable company in the history of the world can't make money in China, who can? China's "miracle" is the same as the German import miracle of the 30's. Massively leveraged companies using a foreign currency and slave labor.
Frankly, I find Walmart revolting. It's filled with massively overweight people leaning against their carts, carts the size of truck beds, because they are too fat to stand, filling them with garbage no human should eat. This is American retail.