I totally agree. Capital gains are at historic lows now. As recently as the early 1990's they were 28% which of course is darn near double the current rate. They will almost certainly go up with a Democrat in the White House.
Hell, at the current pace the AMT will suck in a good chunk of the middle-class already. And I don't really hear ANYbody pounding the table to fix it.
Unfunded entitlements (read: Medicare) will crush us to the tune of about $50 trillion in unfunded future obligations. (No - that's not a typo: trillion is spelled with a "t"). The cost of the war - Iraq or any war - is peanuts compared to what we've done with Medicare. Lots of future pain coming on that issue, and it's anybody's guess how that will play out, but play out it will.
Oh, but we are in a mess. No offense meant to any boomers on this board -- but we are entering entirely uncharted waters with so many of you hanging on for so long.
I think cap gain tax rates were in the 50% range in the 1970's. With a crusading politician determined to 'change the world'(or at least the US), anything can happen.
If enough Keynesian Ivy League 'experts' convinced a big government, soak the 'rich' president and similar congress that higher tax rates would be no problem, they could easily be in place sometime in '09.
And, of course, the rich would include anyone with middle class incomes and higher.
There will be tax law changes in 2009 if Hillary or Obama get in. The Republicans will almost certainly lose seat in Congress and with a Democrat in the White House it will happen. I don't think that long term capital gains will be taxed as ordinary income be I can see a compromise in the 25% range. And the Qualified Dividend rate of 15% will be history also.
Then there is the estate tax issue which will also have changes not to the good.
You may not always be right, but I am always right and so will throw out there the topic that has worried me most lately: "peak oil".
There are numerous resources available that explain peak oil in theory and in fact, as well as scenarios/consequences of peak oil. I'm afraid, though, that probably less than 1% of the U.S. population has even heard about the situation, let alone considered what it means for the U.S. economy, the global economy, the standard of living in this country and our lifestyles, and so on.
Oh yeah -- and then there's Iran. Ever look at a map? Iran sits on the Straits of Hormuz, through which is transported 17 million barrels of oil per day, or almost 20% of daily global oil consumption (of about 85 million barrels). If you want to think about what might set off the next global economic collapse, give some thought to that little channel and the disruptions that might be caused to the flow of oil if conflict breaks out... (As a doctor friend of mine likes to point out: A heart attack or stroke is often caused by a very small clot and not a blockage everywhere, but it's still enough to kill you.)
Yeah your right this stock has to go up or down in the future LOL.
So if you give financial advice whats your veiw about the American housing market and global credit debt.
I geuss it has to up or down too. But realy whats your opinion?
Ah, housing... So much has been written, but let me boil it down to a few axioms that I have tried to live by. I'll try to be fairly broad...
#1) A primary residence is not an "investment". It is a house, or a home, but it is not an "investment" and shouldn't be treated as such. Unless you are an actual real estate investor, you should not invest in real estate -- or pretend to. Live in your home, but don't expect to take it shopping with you to finance your purchases.
#1.5) Review the math that you should have learned in high school, and learn some terms so that you'll understand what you're reading when you read the terms of a mortgage. Funny how those basics sometimes get lost. But of course, this is America, and many people can neither read nor perform basic mathematical equations.
#2) Reversion to the mean. There has been, over a fairly long period of time, a certain relationship between median home price and median income. That relationship was very much our of whack, and anyone who purchased a home with a price that was 4x, 5x, 6x their household income... well, by golly, what a mess they've put themselves in. If one can keep one's home, do NOT expect price increases for the next several years to be much greater than inflation.
#3) Our nation's fiscal house is not in order, and not even close. In terms of currency holdings, diversify out of the dollar to hedge against further declines. They will come. Look to hard assets, or dollar-denominated commodities for parts of your portfolio in order to salvage value as the dollar declines further. If you have the patience to really dig into the problem, try reading "The Coming Generational Storm" by Kotlikoff. It's a brilliant piece of work.
It's late, and I'm tired, bit hopefully that gives you some idea of what I really think....