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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Message Board

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  • xgrk88a xgrk88a Apr 21, 2011 9:23 AM Flag

    discounted cash flow or PEG valuation or 20 year valuation.

    You make such a poor argument. You are saying that using DCF method of valuation is wrong? Or that a PEG of 2 and a growth rate of 20% is unrealistic?

    As I said, this stock is probably 98% owned by people that won't be selling their shares anytime soon. That leaves less than a million shares for people that want to get in. Additionally, the company can buy back a million shares over the next 5 years AND the move to the S&P 500 will probably shrink the share base. Consequently, the share price will continue to go up. People that want to get into this stock under $250 will only get there if a bunch of people short it. But the short game is a tough game. The first short makes money, but the last short gets squeezed out and loses money.

    Anyway, I'm not saying that this stock will go up or down over the next few months, but I do think the price is not overpriced despite all these people like you coming on the board and saying it is bad because it is bad and it is overpriced because it is overpriced without any supporting facts to back up your argument.

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    • "As I said, this stock is probably 98% owned by people that won't be selling their shares anytime soon."

      I stopped reading right there. The "they" to which you referred are most certainly going to be selling, and very soon. Whether we are talking about the mid cap index boys...or all the hangers on that simply rode this GETCO engineered rally, now is exactly when they will be selling. The fundamentals of this company just went "Ta Da!" They are not there.

      Like I said, I stopped reading up there, but if you seriously think you will get new "investors" to willingly step in and buy this ridiculous stock at this price based on your 20 year guesstimate...you simply have drunk too much kook aide this morning. Sober up, buddy.

      • 1 Reply to crazydadinc3
      • Okay. That's fair. So look at it this way:

        It is 98% owned by people that buy / hold and watch fundamentals.

        12.6% insider owned - mainly the CEO, who will hold regardless of how it performs.
        82.5% institution owned.
        The total is 95.1%. These people buy based on fundamentals and track PEG or DCF method of valuing shares. History shows that this % institution owned will increase when it moves to the S&P 500.

        Then there is obviously a contingent of other buy and hold people like me.

        Anyway, if you read my post fully, I think you wouldn't have any argument against why it is priced where it is.

 
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