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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Message Board

  • emildebois emildebois Nov 20, 2011 9:39 PM Flag

    If you're short

    CMG may have some more room for more descent this week. This may be supported by MACD, DMI, and RSI, and momentum analyses. However, it may be possible that a candle stick pattern similar to that of 8/8/11-8/9/11 be repeated. If it does, I would take cover. Although nothing is certain in this biz!

    Good Luck to all fellow shorts.

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    • I won't disagree entirely with that p/e. Eventually CMG will trade there. I think a 20-30 p/e will hold up for awhile. Honestly, if their same store sales are no longer rising at double digit rates, eventually the market will start looking at growth simply as a new store opening phenomenom.

      CMG is not a NFLX. NFLX is getting hammered over their costs rising faster than their sales. CMG, to me, is more like a Krispy Creme or Crocs like stock. Lovely product, rising market penetration, lots of sales velocity....but eventually the growth curve begins to flatten...and it has....but the market just hasn't wanted to acknowledge it yet. It will happen in the next quarter or two.

    • I don't think there's going to be a broad market rally. I think any rallies will be met with selling.

      CMG has been riding a great wave. It's not their "e" that's the problem. It's their 'p". If the market does tank, CMG will give it up. But I'm not expecting a NFLX drop. 10-15%. $250-280 range IMHO.

      When it becomes evident that we aren't marching back up to 13,000 on the DOW or 1300 on the S&P people will lock in gains when they can.

      I expect weakness until the beginning of earnings season in Feb '12.

    • Are you thinking there will be a broad market sell off or just a pullback for CMG?

    • I don't think it's going to be cut in half, sybil. Not until one of their earnings reports fails to "beat".

      I'm still saying..."OK, they'll do $9 next year. Fine". But I'm not going to pay 40x times that for the shares. I believe CMG will sell for a sub 30 p/e sometime before next earnings.

    • funds that front run pomo, ppt and shorts really give a crap about rsi, macd and remaining indicators. all they care is price and holding the uptrend.

    • spotted a broken trend on 11/16

      such statement is a 100% confirmation skidad is not a mystery man but a certified moron

    • You may be right. But it keeps selling off after these little bumps up. Volume is also anemic.

      The close will be interesting. This doesn't look authentic or sustainable yet.

    • how are the lungs mr shorty

    • Here is your positive candle for today, as I mentioned yesterday.
      CMG touches bottom BB, reverses !

      It is likely tomorrow is a green day as well, given seasonality (day before TG).

      If the downtrend is indeed broken, CMG is can go up to 330 if not more, else expect a reversal around 320 / 325 or so.

      Good luck to all.

    • we love u here

      but why are u such a complainer

      watch out for your lungs being removed today

      strong sell @ 11:56 AM - excellent timing

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