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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Message Board

  • vonaboy vonaboy Apr 5, 2012 3:58 PM Flag

    figure it out

    I have been in this for appx 3yrs. In at about $169. When some one can tell me what in the heck about this stock. Never ceases to amaze may. Have literally had the sell sign on my screen 5-10 times and could not pull the trigger. It defies all odds. I am in it only for expansion internationally.Still how high is high?????

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    • a great rule of thumb comes to us from none other than Benjamin Graham.....he said if a stock is trading below 10yr avg. eps multiplied by 10yr average (or median) p/e than it may be of the things that i try to do is to look 3-4 years ahead under some reasonable assumptions using the Ben Graham "cheat sheet" valuation and comparing it to my own logical DCF both cases I get approximately $150/share (including excess cash) for CMG for 2013 and $180/share by 2015.....i was an owner of Netflix and using the same methodology got $75/share for 2013.....i was scratching my head on that one in the 200's, but reality is slowly settling in there. As for CMG, if it got as expensive as NFLX using the methodology above, it could conceivably get to $600/share, however it would just be trading on more air and not reality. So I wish I could help you more than this, but it's all I've got......My best advice is to scale out monthly between now and say the end of the year.....if it hits $600/share (which it could of course) between now and then, I would sell the balance of your shares. I would highly recommend that you sell some shares now, as I am very confident that this stock is now trading very purely on momentum and not reality.

      Good luck!!!

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