As per one "Float Transferred to Dumb Hands Calculation" Theory:
Past 88 sessions * (avg. vol. 0.6M/session) * 0.50 Noise-reduction-multiplier
= 26.4M shares have already been transferred by now into the dumb-hands.
Total float = approx. 31.8M.
Hence, only 5-10 sessions left at most, before a serious move down to
-34% retracement starts. Knowing this, if volume increases, it could be
sooner. (Or if one of the Whales/MFMs breaks the Secret-Circle first,
for one of the variety of reasons).
The real-smart MFMs made their moola here with a move from a base of $50
in Feb 2009 to $400 recently. Now, the folks getting in after curve-downdraft
of March-21st, are essentially classified in the "weak-dumb hands" category.
The expected Fibonacci Retracement will flush them out rather easily.
An emergence of a Tail-Risk type event will immediately force the exit of
the Taleb's Barbell strategy adherents and even convert some of them
into new shorts here, who will enjoy the immediate and rapid slide down.
(after most of the hard-work has already been done for them by their forefathers,
who sacrificed themselves to build the smooth interstate-highway for almost
two-years for the CMG to slide-down on to now :-)). UUP having broken out now,
such a possibility is a highly likely outcome here.
Misplaced belief in a barbell / bimodal strategy is what will eventually get the Johnny come lately longs crushed here (and the Bubble bondholders too). Soon enough, what you see in Europe will be coming to a city, state and (likely last) country near you.
If this squeezes tomorrow, I'm going to double up COB. I don't care if this isn't the exact top, nor do I care that it could in theory take longer to breakdown. People have no friggen understanding of how hard this and every other restaurant stock will get hammered as we look just like Europe by 2013.
Good luck longs. You might have another 6 months before this gets cut by a third, but I doubt it. By EOY 2013, this will be sub 200... Trade away!
Thanks for all the recos. These calculations have never failed on me. The first cover tgt for long termers is 271 and next is 191... anything higher than that, and one is simply leaving the money on the table, even after being right modelling! There is not a single reason to buy this right now and perhaps more than two dozen to sell, IMHO.
Sticking with my steps going down ... 271 first step down, next 191, ... next... next ... YE-Tax-Loss-Selling -- Corn/Inputs Hyper-Inflation .. and you see a reasonable PE of 15 and pps in double-digits! It has now metamorphed itself into a "value" category stock, and the PE would reflect as such. Value managers don't pay a 57 multiple for a burito stock, without any intellectual-moat of the semi/tech/software-cloud/bio-informatics type companies!
NOP FRAUD STILL IN USA WORKING CLASS PENSIONS
FIDELITY/TROWE/STATE STREET & REST OF SCAM GANG CRIMINALS WILL BUST USA WORKING CLASS PENSIONS
Top Institutional Holders
Holder Shares % Out Value* Reported
Capital World Investors 3,128,182 9.87 1,307,580,076 Mar 31, 2012
PRICE (T.ROWE) ASSOCIATES INC 2,981,371 9.40 1,246,213,078 Mar 31, 2012
VANGUARD GROUP, INC. (THE) 1,735,499 5.47 725,438,582 Mar 31, 2012
JENNISON ASSOCIATES LLC 1,593,814 5.03 666,214,252 Mar 31, 2012
STATE STREET CORPORATION 1,154,407 3.64 482,542,126 Mar 31, 2012
Ameriprise Financial, Inc. 850,518 2.68 355,516,524 Mar 31, 2012
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 833,954 2.63 348,592,772 Mar 31, 2012
JANUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 633,650 2.00 264,865,700 Mar 31, 2012
FMR LLC 3,911,609 12.34 1,635,052,562 Mar 31, 2012
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES, LLC 631,800 1.99 264,092,400 Mar 31, 2012
Co-relation haunts again: CMG and MSFT -- down same day big time after Oct 18th, 2012! Spooky action! This slide in CMG may not stop until 250 first, this time around. Many traders are extremely superstitious too. Now, some are saying- the man chopping off his two arms in the HD store today, is an extremely bad-omen for that HD stock too... it marks the top in HD pps and its all downhill from 72 to 50 there next. Time will tell.