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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Message Board

  • techstrategy techstrategy Jun 25, 2012 5:42 PM Flag

    A little perspective...


    Thought I would have some fun with stock selection criteria to see how disconnected CMG's valuation is relative to others:

    Criteria: EV>2B, PEG>2, PE>50, FPE>30 in the consumer discretionary sector.

    Two companies qualify. UA and CMG. If I was to lower the PEG to > 1.5, LULU would be the third company to quality... UA and LULU have fewer constraints on growth trajectory (restaurants cannot really grow beyond retail presence where LULU has done a nice job through online channel...). But, CMG is the only consumer discretionary over $10B with these kind of multiples, PEG ratios etc...

    Sure, oil/gas is coming down (until refinery capacity bottlenecks and the summer driving season take it back up to $90ish. A little QEX/LRTOX and we break $100 again...). But, the negative stimulus of the fiscal cliff will dwarf any small temporary lift from lower oil prices (which are themselves self correcting as unconventional reserves like shale oil become unprofitable).

    Amazing how light the volume is these days... It's almost as if there is a temporary seller's strike to maintain the highest price possible for EOQ...

    This topic is deleted.
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