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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Message Board

  • billy_berew billy_berew Jul 22, 2012 11:36 PM Flag

    Need help from smart board members

    Compute the average revenue per store for Q2 of both 2011 and 2012.

    You'll see that average revenue per store grew only 3.9%

    If, as management indicates, stores in the comparable store based grew 8%, and these stores make up 80-90% of the total stores, doesn't this mean that stores excluded from the comp base (i.e., the new stores) are experience a shocking decrease in revenue growth? Note that new stores likely make up 10-20% of the based, so to bring the average sale per store down 4.1%, they must have experienced a huge revenue DECLINE approaching 20% or more.

    If the numbers management gives us for comps are correct, this picture ain't looking good. If the numbers are wrong, then CMG may be computing their same store comps using some weird accounting.

    It does seem very very odd that same store comps could grow at 8% when revenue per average store grew only 3.9%.

    I used to think CMG couldn't screw up the financials because it is such a simple business that is easy to audit. The same store sales comps are something different though. I don;t think the auditors look at them as thoroughly, and there are no tight standards for how to compute comps.

    I have to admit. I'm a bit puzzled over this one.

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    • Hi Billy, here we go again with the same thing.

      They use AVERAGE sales of COMPARABLE stores(as of 6/3012) during Q2-2012 and it is 3.9% above the AVERAGE sales of COMPARABLE stores(as of 6/30/2011)

      Comparable stores are the stores that are 12+ months old

      Average sales = total of all sales from comparable/number of qualified stores at that moment.

      sss = comparable

      comparable = sss

      after first 12 months store is being called comparable and gets included in sss. during the second year it may grow by 20% easily as word of mouth starts working and corporate catering picks up. After three years of aggressive work growth has to slow down significantly, it is just how restaurant biz really is.

      Have i solved your problem. let me know.

      btw, you are looking for rat and it is there, but you are looking in the wrong place.

 
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