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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Message Board

  • billy_berew billy_berew Feb 22, 2013 10:24 PM Flag

    More Pain Ahead

    We all know CMG's same store sales growth declined from 12% in 2011 to 7% in 2012, and the trend is not their friend. The comp declined each quarter during 2012 to an anemic 3.8%. Not good. But even worse is the performance of the new stores open less than a year, which are not in the normal comp. These new stores actually faced an average revenue loss of 19% during 4Q of 2012 when compared to 4Q of 2011. That's really bad, considering the new stores are supposed to drive CMG's growth going forward.

    Well, you say, they always have international growth! but do they really. The average foreign location currently has $900M of net operating losses. Even more disconcerting, the London stores are doing the worst by far. I find that interesting since they obviously thought London was the best entry point to Europe. If London losses money, the other cities will as well. The only international stores actually doing OK are the Toronto stores, and you might as well put those in the US terrritory. Tastes are the same as the U.S.

    As for Asia, think for a moment. Have you ever seen a US based Asian east at CMG? Count the number of Asians in the store next time you visit. You won't find any. There's a reason for that. Even in Seattle, which has a huge Asian population, I seen none of them in Chipotle.

    This company's growth prospects are hyped to the max at a time when austerity is kicking in.

    Good luck.

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