Sun, Dec 28, 2014, 3:50 PM EST - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Message Board

  • no_luck_needed1 no_luck_needed1 Oct 18, 2013 12:39 PM Flag

    Short for the 1st time since July 2012

    Who knows, I may not be right, but i haven't been short since I made a bundle in July 2012.

    For some reason I felt it was not a good idea to take a position before earnings (I was even considering buying call options). But this is likely the end of the move higher for awhile. The non-believers have been shook out, and we remain with a stock trading at nearly 5x sales. It will take (Get this) 12 years for sales to reach $6.5billion at a 6% SSS growth rate. Or 6 years at a 15% overall sales growth. So if they can keep opening new stores at the same growth rate the stock at $500 will trade at 2.5x sales in 6 years.

    But new restaurant growth you suggest? Breakfast meals? International growth? I hardly see a young family in Malaysia taking their kids out for Mexican-inspired breakfast. Europe growth - good luck! last time i checked Europeans and Australians don't even consider eating Mexican food.

    So even if nothing goes wrong, and growth continues at its pace (which means higher $ nominal growth every year) the stock seems reasonable at $500 in 6 years. That alone makes this an easy sell today. If the veneer comes off this fad even just slightly (you know - when taking your friend to Chipotle isn't the "hip" thing to do anymore)) this thing will get crushed. And at the very least, seems like a low-risk short or put option play.

    I know i got mine.

 
CMG
678.06+5.27(+0.78%)Dec 26 4:05 PMEST

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
Virgin America Inc.
NASDAQFri, Dec 26, 2014 4:00 PM EST
Fluor Corporation
NYSEFri, Dec 26, 2014 4:03 PM EST