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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Message Board

  • no_luck_needed1 no_luck_needed1 Oct 18, 2013 12:39 PM Flag

    Short for the 1st time since July 2012

    Who knows, I may not be right, but i haven't been short since I made a bundle in July 2012.

    For some reason I felt it was not a good idea to take a position before earnings (I was even considering buying call options). But this is likely the end of the move higher for awhile. The non-believers have been shook out, and we remain with a stock trading at nearly 5x sales. It will take (Get this) 12 years for sales to reach $6.5billion at a 6% SSS growth rate. Or 6 years at a 15% overall sales growth. So if they can keep opening new stores at the same growth rate the stock at $500 will trade at 2.5x sales in 6 years.

    But new restaurant growth you suggest? Breakfast meals? International growth? I hardly see a young family in Malaysia taking their kids out for Mexican-inspired breakfast. Europe growth - good luck! last time i checked Europeans and Australians don't even consider eating Mexican food.

    So even if nothing goes wrong, and growth continues at its pace (which means higher $ nominal growth every year) the stock seems reasonable at $500 in 6 years. That alone makes this an easy sell today. If the veneer comes off this fad even just slightly (you know - when taking your friend to Chipotle isn't the "hip" thing to do anymore)) this thing will get crushed. And at the very least, seems like a low-risk short or put option play.

    I know i got mine.

437.95+4.45(+1.03%)May 3 4:00 PMEDT