Total Debt minus Cash comes to 26B in Total Debt. Currently paying 5.5% dividend but has a payout ratio of 108% means the dividend is unsustainable. Commodity prices and demand are falling and will likely fall further as China economy slows. The Brazilian economy is faltering and large street protests. A socialist president which will likely do even more of a money-grab from domestic companies like Vale makes for a very bad situation for Vale.
Even with a dividend cut Vale’s in world of hurt. And when they cut the dividend the stock will plunge. Single digits is in the future.