I agree with your statement that it is a steal. Who knows what it will hit and when. But even at 20.00 it is a good value. They will continue to improve earnings (3rd quarter is going to blow the average anal yst estimate away) with third quarter ore prices in China stronger than expected and cost cutting measures still being implemented.
People are over thinking this...Watch the options trade... you have a very tight strike on both puts and calls... the players are betting that we stay between 14.50 and 15 until sept 6 expiration.. This is because of low volume...in other words there is no reason to think big money will start dumping in yet. BUT nothing makes me happier than to see shorts scramble and call contract sellers leave 20% on the table... :-) it happens all the time...all the time. 17 by Nov. ... we will touch 18 but will remain at that level until all the China, war, Ore Prices, Potash, railroad, emerging market and seaborn negative news fades away... .
This is a long slow roller coaster... Best of luck