The shortest summary of VICL maybe that "it is not a swine flu play".
Even though it may have the fastest new virus to vaccine process (which is why the Navy is interested in it - since that is a strategic asset). And it also happens to have Vaxfectin an adjuvant which contains no squalene or other such stuff. VICL's H5N1 and H1N1 vaccines elicit a strong T-cell response (which is supposedly helpful for recovery).
And VICL is not even in the flu business - it chose not to spend it's own money on H1N1 human trials (currently ongoing with Navy funding) because it knew the Navy would be funding it (and because flu is a hype dominated story).
PAD (peripheral arterial disease) and metastatic melanoma are the things VICL is more serious about (upcoming approvals in Japan).
Basically anything to do with "DNA vaccine" is related to VICL - it is the co-discoverer (along with the Univ. of Wisconsin) of "DNA vaccines".
Vaccines for HIV, cancer, CMV etc.
A number of other players use VICL's vaccines - INO, Merck and some universities.
Vijay Samant (VICL CEO) suggested in conference audio that a huge percentage of HIV trials in the world are using VICL technology.
the fact (US companies)Merck, Pfizer, and J&J are not leading vaccination has to be a concern. Federal money on the line and I bet soon one will make a large move in vaccines and aquire Vical. Based on project phase II and III revenues on drugs price has to be above $10
How do you put a price on the promising treatments that Vical has and a extensive pipeline http://www.vical.com/products/index.htm How does one put a price on saving a life ? How does DNDN have a price target of $33. with a float of 114 million shares .Its the promise of saving lives and a alternative treatment other than chemo.
Also how do you value a company that depends on FDA approvals and clinical trial results? You won't know the results till they happen. Also stocks move in irrattic ways. The market goes up we go down, the market goes down we go down. The stock is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. When the stock is moving up, people feel better about buying it. When the stock goes down, people pull their buy orders and sellers step up. It doesn't mean that the company is worth less today than the day before. The best bet is to buy and hold for a longer term till news comes out to change your view about the company.
No takers on my question, hmmm...actually scary for longs not to know a realistic valuation of their holdings. Is the board full of speculators? Are you wishing for results?
A older gentlemen, worth almost a hundred of million, mentioned to me "If you dont know what something is worth...why are you buying it"? That question stuck with me hope it does with you...time to do your home work longs. That's your homework for this weekend.
The answer is simple There is little or no value until something significant makes it to market. The proof is DNDN before and after Provenge's final trial Intuitively you would think VICL's stock price is too low based on the probability of drugs making it to market and number of shares outstanding. Still, currently, it is only a betting line and the market is adjusting the line only on demand Your older gentleman's pawn shop logic doesn't apply here