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Vical Incorporated Message Board

  • The_Emerging_Analyst The_Emerging_Analyst Feb 8, 2012 8:19 AM Flag

    What delay in event rate means

    The company originally thought they would hit the targeted event rate in Sept-Oct 2011. That was based on a model where the control group had a median survival of 10-11 months and the Allovectin arm had a median survival of 18-19 months. Then the company thought we would reach the event rate in June 2012 as patients were living longer than expected. In xonjunction with Chippers model and my inputs we formulated possible results that would conform with a target event rate in June 2012. That model had the control arm with a median survival of 15 months and the Allovectin arm with a median survival of 25 months. Now, it appears that the targeted event rate won't be reached until fourth quarter of 2012. That would probably be explained by a model that had the control group having median survival of 15-18 months but the Allovectin arm having a median survival of at least 28 months and possibly well over 30 months. Such a result would be a tremendous advancement in the treatment of melanoma. We need patience, but we may have found the biggest victory so far in the war against melanoma.

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