...Vical presents at 2 conferences, with Vijay's Waldorf Astoria presentation available on webcast.
Would love to read and hear more about a "breaking news" PR from Vical coming out of both conferences.
Time will tell when VICL moves upward towards a new 52 week high. It's overdue IMO.
We're in agreement, and I apologize for using such casual language. It was not my intent to minimize the stakes or efforts being expended in this venture. I do hope we hear from you again at some point.
How about the IPO of The Germany Fund in the 1990's? It opened at the offering price, then went to a 10% premium over net asset value, despite the fact that all they had was the cash from the offering. Some smarties went short and some of the IPO buyers took profits. Then it went to a 20% premium... then 40%! The world's greatest short, right? Ha! They didn't read the fine print that said no stock would be delivered for a month after the offer. When the sellers couldn't deliver (even the long sellers from the deal), they were "bought in." From whom? Nobody had any stock. The new shorts couldn't deliver, either. It nearly doubled, sold at a 90% premium to NAV! Monster losses. There's always more to the story.
Ahh that's a great one, thanks for sharing. I've had similar experiences with the premiums on Lehman puts (huge premiums despite company assurances they were solvent), or URI puts with fat premiums that were out of the money, minutes before they were to expire (court ruling was imminent), GM stock after bankruptcy (brokerages were forcing clients to cover shorts), etc....
I would LOVE to hear somebody ask VJ the direct question, "Why can't we assume that the delay in locking is screaming that the A-7 arm is living longer." I'd love to hear him try to hedge that one.
Simply put, the answer is that by selectively picking a relatively healthy subset of melanoma patients (probably mostly stage 3, rather than 50% Stage 4, at that), they have seriously underestimated the median survival of the control group. There really hasn't been this exact subset of MM patients evaluated for median survival before. And this is what the market is now assuming.
While I would love to see the stock trade higher, with the end of the A-7 trial delayed to year end, I am not expecting much stock movement based on A-7 until we get closer to the end of the trial. There is not much VJ can do PR wise with a blind study and the constraints of the SEC.
VJ always hedges his answers and will only say, as he has in the past, that one of three outcomes is possible. The question that really needs clarification is what happens at the end of this year if the survival end point is still not reached. Three different callers tried to pin him down on that one, during the year end call and he evaded all of them. I suspect that VJ is under some pressure from the brokerage houses that sold the follow on offering. Part of their pitch had to be that results would be out by mid-year and within weeks that was moved back to late this year or even later. I suspect, that is one reason why VJ is back on the presentation circut. I still have faith in the science but not much in the CEO as a salesman. However, I have been long for years and will stay the course. I have read all I can on the trials and see A7 as a great step forward in cancer treatment.