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Vical Incorporated Message Board

  • gofordna gofordna Nov 19, 2012 2:13 PM Flag

    Celgene, Abraxane & Vical's Allovectin 7

    Mesondk's recent post about value of 6 months longer life is relevant to all long's. Though 6 months' more survival for melanoma patients may not be worth 2 billion in market cap for Vical right away, it should drive such value in coming years....especially since Vical carries no debt as an aquisition target.

    Back in 2010, when Celgene cut a big deal for Abraxane's platform and pipeline, it was worth over $2 billion to Abraxis shareholders, per these terms:
    $250 million cash payment upon certain U.S. approval of ABRAXANE(R) by FDA for NSCLC with progression-free survival claim in U.S. label
    $300 million in cash upon the approval of ABRAXANE by FDA for pancreatic cancer with overall survival claim in U.S. label.
    $100 million cash payment upon FDA approval of ABRAXANE for pancreatic cancer by April 1, 2013.
    Potential cash royalty payments upon achievement of certain ABRAXANE and nab-pipeline products net revenue thresholds.

    Celgene moved from penny stock (like Vical) to contender in the late 1990's after the NE Journal of Medicine validated it's primary drug platform. Then, years later as a multi-billion company, Celgene moved strategically into solid tumor cancer drugs, driving the case for Abraxis at nearly $2.9 billion.

    Note above references to value of "progression free survival" and "overall survival."

    What if.....
    Vical has one or more deals in play for Allovectin with such cash payment triggers???
    What if such a deal were announced, like the Astellas deal for TransVax.....before the Phase 3 data were reported??
    How much could another round of bargaining be worth for Vical's board, with the likes of Celgene, BMS, Astellas, Merck, Amgen, etc.???

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    • Gofordna, have you studied the details on the Abraxane trial? A lot of great info on stratification and survival rates. In summary, I hope Abraxane gets approved as it would bode well for Allovectin. The increase in OS for Abraxane over DTIC was only 2 months and the grade 3, 4 adverse effects were 50%.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to the_emerging_analyst
      • Emerging....
        Yes, I've dug a bit deeper on Abraxane and the company acquired by Celgene called Abraxis.
        Abraxane IS ALREADY APPROVED for A) breast cancer and B) lung cancer with pending approval for C)pancreatic cancer. This drug appears a "drug of last resort" for nasty metatastic cancers. Yes, it has nasty side effects and I understand that Celgene's investment in Abraxane is still under water.

        here's what official FDA info says about Abraxane:
        Indications and Usage for Abraxane
        Metastatic Breast Cancer
        Abraxane is indicated for the treatment of breast cancer after failure of combination chemotherapy for metastatic disease or relapse within 6 months of adjuvant chemotherapy. Prior therapy should have included an anthracycline unless clinically contraindicated.

        Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer
        ​Abraxane is indicated for the first-line treatment of locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer, in combination with carboplatin, in patients who are not candidates for curative surgery or radiation therapy.

    • Just FYI, this market is so corrupt in between shorts aided by "analysts" and insider trading tips, its amazing anybody invests to provide capital to long term R&D companies


      Six people, including several health-care executives and a group of high-school friends, were arrested Monday and accused of running a five-year scheme to illegally execute a series of trades ahead of public announcements by pharmaceutical companies and other firms.

      Federal prosecutors in New Jersey alleged that John Lazorchak, director of financial reporting at pharmaceutical firm Celgene Corp., shared confidential information about the company's earnings, potential acquisitions and drug approvals by regulators ahead of their public announcements with his former boss and a group of high-school friends between 2007 and earlier this year.

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