Imagine how bullish Vical stock would be when either of its strategic platforms -- cancer or CMV -- draw big $$ from another big pharma. I say another big pharma since the Astellas deal brought tens of millions in cash without much more than a market burp. TransVax attracted Astellas.... a top 10 global pharma company, and then Astellas took on further development of the drug with Vical leading in trial design and launch prep, since Vical's next big milestone payment will be triggered when the TransVax trials begin.
Now imagine a quantum benefit for dying melanoma patients -- tolerable out patient injections + good durable response chances for chemo naive patients + promising & superior survival benefit for responders who get several treatment cycles of Allovectin. Imagine "free" news coverage on networks and business cable reporting the Phase 3 results, ease of manufacturing and drug delivery AND the rising value of Vical as a probable takeover target.
Now imagine a possible "two-fer." With progress and share price boosts from both the CMV and cancer franchises THIS YEAR.
In March 2009 -- less than 4 years ago -- who thought the Dow and S&P would more than double by now? I did. And I moved back long on equities. Time will tell when Vical doubles to move back above $7.00.
Well, vaxfectin is potentially a big money maker. BMS (Bristol-Myers Squibb) seems to like it.
If the phase III results are positive, you can also expect the announcement this year of a Yervoy-Allovectin-7 trial with BMS. Actually, that is likely to occur even if the phase III results are marginal, but the design and the terms of the trial will be different. No big milestone payments if A-7 can't stand on its own.
Also, consider the wildcard of a possible bird flu epidemic or other viral emergency that would play right into Vical's strength.