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Vical Incorporated Message Board

  • davecarmen48 davecarmen48 Feb 21, 2013 1:41 PM Flag

    Any direct evidence that A-7 is working?

    I have kept half my position in and during this lull, I have been looking for a shred of evidence that A-7 is working.
    Do your own research, look at the cancer patient forums out there. There are a few examples of people going into the trial only to end up on chemo or hoping to try something else. Not a reliable sample by no means but I was hoping to find at least one fortunate soul who would be boasting about A-7. To date I am only finding patients switching. Look for yourself. It's goulish research but I am looking for good news any good news. Again, small sample out of the hundreds enrolled, so statistically not significant. People talk about their experiences on these forums and support groups. They probably do not care about confidentiality agreements. They share their hopes. I hope this small sample is not indicative of the results, but I am beginning to really take pause in why such a delay and the potential reason for it.

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    • Good questions you raise wrong place to do it. Biotechs boards are rampant with experts who try to impress almost always on the positive side. There is a REASON for the delay even the board experts cannot deny that. I do not think it is a good sign. It never has been in the past with cancer drugs.

      • 3 Replies to outtinfront
      • "There is a REASON for the delay even the board experts cannot deny that. I do not think it is a good sign. It never has been in the past with cancer drugs."

        outtinfront --
        Who wrote the above 3 sentences at 10pm on 21 February? (Note the use of the word 'never' in the last sentence). Once you own up to having done this (and everyone can see your post plain as day), your credibility for truthfulness goes into the toilet. For shame.

      • outinfront states (Feb 21, 10pm): "There is a REASON for the delay even the board experts cannot deny that. I do not think it is a good sign. It never has been in the past with cancer drugs."

        I agree with the first sentence. The second sentence is merely an opinion and does not represent "truth" or "falsehood". The third sentence is a lie.

        Everyone is entitled to an opinion, however flawed it might be. But here's why I don't worry about the VICL stock price: my thesis for owning the stock has not changed, and for me is still valid. The company is making progress on its pipeline, and I sincerely believe A-7 results will be known this YEAR sometime. (I've learned my lesson with VJ). So, if you are a shareholder of VICL and are getting 'nervous' about the pps, ask yourself why you bought the shares in the first place. If that reason is still valid, then why worry? If part of your rationale for buying shares was that the pps would only go straight up, then it seems that your thesis is no longer valid, and you need to decide whether to alter your thesis or sell your shares and move on. Further, if price is not part of your thesis, then it makes no sense to sell now at such lowered prices. Hey, for me, the lower prices are causing out-month option prices to fall also, thus making it easier to pick up some more. If your thesis still hangs together, then look on the bright side: one of your favorite stocks is on sale!

      • Once again you say such ignorant things outinfront, it's still a toss up between you and charles tho. Wasn't Yervoy's results delayed several times over the course of a few years?

    • If 20% of A7 patients respond to treatment, the trial will be a big success. Therefore if you somehow find forum posts from 5 A7 patients at least 4 of them would be expected to be non responders. If you find less than 5 people on forums the probability that even one of them is a responder is low. If anyone was on DTIC the chances of them being a responder is very small. So the couple of examples you have seen could easily be saying negative things even in a successful trial. If anyone from the trial is currently posting on a forum, no matter what they say, something good must have happened because they are alive at least 3 years and maybe 6 years since entering the trial.

      • 2 Replies to the_emerging_analyst
      • Not sure where you come up with the idea that if 20% of the patients respond A7 will be a big success. While I would agree that since the trial design has a primary endpoint of response rate after 24 weeks and a small percentage of in the control group are likely to maintain a response beyond 24 weeks, that A7 is likely to hit the primary endpoint. However, as Vijay has communicated consistently, they are at least (if not more) concerned with the OS measurement, which is a median measurement, and if only 20% of the A7 patients respond to the vaccine, you are not going to move the needle on a median survival number. This exact same scenario was played out several years ago with a company called Genitope, who had a cancer vaccine called MyVax - only about a third of the patients responded to the vaccine, so the 2/3rds of the patients that did not respond had comparable survival to the control arm. If you are familiar with a Kaplan Meier curve, picture the control and active arms tied closely together for the first 65% of the patients and then the active arm opening a wide margin of benefit for the bottom 35% - doesn't help a median measurement! Maybe the FDA is more open to the idea that there is some value to a cancer immunotherapy that gets less than half the patients to respond to it, but if the number is only 20%, I wouldn't count on it?

      • Again. Trying to guess the outcome here is a waste of time. Look at the chart patterns on ARNA and DNDN right before the FDA 's comments. Hard to get a read. When the stock sells off everyone starts to think A-7 "maybe "not working. For the last time.The short is leaning on a companies stock that is trying to extend life and advance science. All for money.SO. IF he knew anything he would let this stock soar (and it wants to). But no. This is an attempt hold it down and cover as much as possible. Remember the Devil is here to make money.Not help advance vicl's cause. He would increase his profit 5fold if he let it run , then lay out stock. This is a very simple , bullish take on this trade. He doesn't know a thing. He does know how to get this board to "second guess" itself. Again. He certainly knows alot LESS about the trials that Emerg and Gofor. He's got one last chance to cover and this, in real time here is it. This recent activity is not Cyvax and Dimension sellinjg stock. Its a short paying bags of money for manipulation. Same thing happened 2 months ago.Thats it.

    • Why would anyone who was doing well on A-7 be on a cancer patient forum? Are not people on such forums looking for a solution? If a patient has found that A-7 appears to be a solution to his problem, why would he go to a patient forum? Isn't it a fact that what we investors are now waiting for is for over half the patients, including the A-7 patients, to die? That half of the A-7 population, before they die, are going to know that they are still sick aren't they? Won't they be the ones who go to cancer patient forums and elsewhere looking for something that may help them? The ones A-7 is helping on the other hand can do nothing to help others if they go to a cancer forum and praise A-7 except to say: "stay alive until this thing is approved and hopefully it will help you like it seems to be helping me." That would, IMHO, be very dubious encouragement, at least for now.

      • 2 Replies to rosesny1
      • Rose - why is it so incomprehensible that someone might want to go into a forum ? It seems to me that people who are, or are not even at the moment - concerned even in a cheerleading sort of way for others. So, doesn't seem so hard to imagine that to me.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • rosesny1 is correct. I have spent a lot of time researching patient forums for info on various maladies. If you read enough of these outlets, one of the recurring laments of those patients posting is that those "responding" or getting relief no longer participate. Those who are getting better go on to try to regain normality in their lives.

    • You get a few poster, who knows as to what treatment they gotten? Could they have been on the placebo and nothing is working so they want to switch. This is unknown territory, Don't buy into it!

    • The International Melanoma Foundation has a forum that I briefly checked for mention of A-7. Nothing I could find. Your concern is shared by many of us. If there is some "leakage" of A-7 results into the share price, it does not bode well for the trial results.

    • How many discrete patients did you read about? How confident are you of their credibility? Thx.

      • 1 Reply to camptownn
      • Just a few. One guy was from Germany or is German, the other France. There was another from maybe Texas. As for the first 2, their posts had to be translated to English so their were some parts that were not very clear. As for credibility, who knows, but when reading about their plight, you do not get the impression that it is made up.

 
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