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Vical Incorporated Message Board

  • zavadsky1965 zavadsky1965 Mar 8, 2013 10:38 AM Flag

    Why has Vical been doing so well in the past few days?

    Does any-one knows?

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    • Apparently they impressed investors at the Cowen conference.

    • Finally break even after years of holding....should one use this as an opportunity to exit?

    • We are going to be bought for 12.00 per share..... Hats why

    • No one who knows anything will post it here. This is pure speculation:

      If you look at a sample of biotechs just before the announcement of pivotal phase III results, you soon see that price movement does not show much correlation with what the results turn out to be. Why is that, can't there be leaks? Oh, leaks could occur, but in most clinical trials, the results are double blinded and once they are unblinded only a very few individuals are allowed to see the results. The fact that the results are so closely held increases the peril for those in the know because it will be relatively easy to find the leak. If the results were to be used for insider trading, the criminal penalties could be very harsh. The SEC is not very good at prosecuting Wall Street criminals, but they are relatively good at catching those guilty of insider trading and making an example of them. Just think about Martha Stewart's time in jail, all over just $45,000 loss avoided with insider information. She paid many times that much in fines and to her lawyers.

      The A7 phase III trial is somewhat unusual in that the treatment in the control arm of the trial is quite different from the experimental arm of the trial. So, the doctors know which treatment each patient received. Since each doctor only has a few patients in the trial, each doctor will still not know if the A7 is working. If you only have two patients getting the control treatment and two getting A7, you really don't have enough information to judge how well things are working overall. However, if anyone has access to information from mulltiple sites, and if the results are good enough, someone might be able to deduce that A7 is working without unblinding the study. They would not necessarily be someone suspected of being in the know... perhaps a sales rep from another pharma who chats up the doctors in multiple offices and figures out the A7 is working. That is how an A7 leak may have developed

      • 2 Replies to falco_rules
      • Forget rumors or leaks. Look at 1) the string of Headlines' articles posted by Yahoo Finance to Vical since late January ..... collective message is quite bullish and optimistic for Vical and immunotherapies; 2) Look at Vical share prices in the last 12 months....stuck in a narrow trading channel with solid and mounting institutional share of float; 3) Listen to the consistent drumbeat from CEO Vijay in a series of public communications; 4) Look at the significant stock market rotation (institutional and individual) from fixed income to equities.....since the fiscal cliff deal equities had two consecutive months of positive returns in all three major US market indexes.

      • Excellent point. Perhaps the type of person who would best be in a position to get a hint of how the trial is going would be a sales rep for Yervoy or Zelboraf if his assigned territory included some major clinical sites. We can assume that patients still alive from the trial if not totally NED on their scans would now be using Yervoy or Zelboraf. So in discussing his drug with docs such a sales rep might possibly gain a tiny bit of insight into how good the trial results might end up.

    • No place else to put money,

      Sentiment: Buy

    • ed_brady Mar 8, 2013 11:08 AM Flag

      Initial frenzy in anticipation of June.

    • Someone might.

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