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Vical Incorporated Message Board

  • beachlifeisfun beachlifeisfun Jun 5, 2013 7:48 AM Flag

    current action is just silly

    Bottom line is simple arithmetic. Phase 3 started in October 2006. Meaning that is when people first began enrolling in the trial. We are now 81 months into the trial without having the requisite number of death events to unblind the data. The control group median survival for this group is guessed to be around 13-18 months. Enough said.

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    • And the fact that the randomization was 2:1 rather than 1:1 increases the chances that the very long delay in reaching the required number of events is due to the A-7 group surviving very long.

      If the control group (1/3 of the total) also survived much longer than predicted, then maybe only ~80%-90% have now died instead of the predicted ~90%-95%, but this couldn't impact the timing of x-number-of-deaths-occurring that much.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to efficient_frontier2002
      • Efficient, What you are describing is the DISCOUNTING that I have built into my model.

        If we assume that the Vical is being overly conservative and instead of there being only 5 people still alive in the control group, there are actually 20 when they lock the DB... then a median was reached in the A-7 arm months ago, rather than now.

        So, how many months?

        1) Half of the control arm 65 out of 130 was enrolled between April 2009 and Feb 2010. So, let us use December 2009 as the median enrollment date for the 65.

        2) If we use the most optimistic scenario provided by the bears 18 months MST for the control arm. Then half of the 65, or 35 patients, die between Jan 2010 and July 2011. That is a death rate of appx. 2 per month.

        3) By the time we get to Mid 2012 ( 3 years past the median enrollment date of April 2009) the death rate in the control arm has probably slowed to 1 per month, since there are probably no more than 20% (26) alive
        in this arm.

        4) Therefore, let us use 1 death a month as the OVER count effect, so we can count backwards from mid 2013.

        5) If there was NO over count of the control arm, then the MST for the A-7 arm would be at least 50 months as of June 2013..... Median enrollment April 2009 - June 2013= 50 months

        6) So, we use the full 50 months MST MINUS the 1 death per month over count 50 minus 15= 35 months MST

        7) My minimum estimate for the A-7 MST is 35 months.

        8) So, even if the control arm some how managed to have an 18 month MST, A-7 MST would still be almost TWICE as long, in a worst case scenario.

    • 1) A-7 began first treatments in Jan 2007, NOT Oct. 2006.

      2) The current action is based upon a MIS understanding of A-7

      3) I thought there was a high risk of this reaction to ASCO... I tried to warn the pumpers....

      4) The mechanism of action behind the PD-1 drugs requires that T-cells are already "activated" .

      5) A-7 causes T-cell infiltration and activation.

      THEREFORE, A-7's value as actually INCREASED dramatically... even though people like "Chipper" do not understand.

      But, do not feel bad CHIP... only a tiny fraction of people have enough immunology knowledge to understand what I just wrote.

      A-7 will be FAR, FAR bigger than you realize.... The rest of Vical is worth much, much less than you realize.

      • 1 Reply to viclobserver
      • "THEREFORE, A-7's value as actually INCREASED dramatically... even though people like "Chipper" do not understand. "

        Always with the undeserved arrogant attitude, eh VO? I understand completely that the market does not perceive there to be advantages of combining A-7 with PD-1s. And what is most important here, VO?

        1) What YOU think? or ...
        2) What the market is currently thinking .... and evaluating.

        As an investor I couldn't give a rat's derriere what YOU think. But I do care how the market is treating my stock, and wondering if/when advantages to A-7 will be recognized.

        That is how I invest: by determining whether the market will wake up someday soon (although too late perhaps for different positions I've taken, including being short VICL puts) or take a year to wake up. That makes a big difference in how I invest in VICL.

        The last thing I need from you is investment advice, given your track record in particular.

    • If I may ellaborate. THE ACTION OF THE LAST 2 DAYS HAD PLAYED OUT LIKE THIS. a forced sell (MY GUYS SAY ITS SAC).. they have to unload a nice chunk of stock. Lets guess 700k. So IF they SOLD AT the market, stock trades to 2.70. The biggest, most experienced traders on the street will find them a BUYER. the stock trades 'IN THE HOLE" down to 3.25-3.30. and everyone wins.The buyer gets cheap stock. The seller gets out higher than the MKT price. So expect a reversal soon.

 
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