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Vical Incorporated Message Board

  • viclobserver viclobserver Aug 5, 2013 7:51 AM Flag

    PART #5 Vical: Debunking The Factless Self-Serving Articles From Adam Feuerstein

    Since the target of deaths was reached at 50 months for the median enrolled patient, in a study that was randomized 2 to 1, the conclusion is beyond doubt.

    The super long duration of the phase 3 study means the Allovectin-7 arm lived about 40 months in median, even if the control arm lives 14.91 months

    As I presented in my previous Seeking Alpha analysis, my 40 month estimation for the Allovectin-7 arm was conservatively based upon 14.9% of the control arm being alive at 50 months. 14.9% being alive at 50 months is strongly correlated with a 15 month mOS.

    So, even if the control arm lives 15 months, the super long duration of the Allovectin-7 phase 3, can only mean one thing... That the A-7 arm is living much longer. A 15 month mOS for control arm= 40 months for the Allovectin-7 arm.

    Silence and Disinterest

    Going into the 2013 meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncologists, very few people in the Melanoma community knew much about Allovectin-7, with the exception of those who are directly involved in the phase 3, and a few very patient investors.

    Just because most people do not understand or know something even exists, does not mean that thing will not be extremely significant in the near future

    99% of the people on Wall street were oblivious to the fact that way too many semi worthless Liar Loans, had been ground into CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligations) sausages, that were fraudulently rated AAA. These toxic sausage CDOs became responsible for almost tipping the entire world into another Great Depression.

    Does that mean this huge problem did not exist? Does that mean the problem was not incredibly significant, and would have huge effects upon the world. Practically all of Wall street knew that anyone who could fog a mirror could get a residential real estate loan with next to no money down. Yet only a very small group of people bothered to connect to dots.

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    • This post by VO is nonsense

    • While I agree with your summation regarding the trial results.....I am a little concerned that institutional ownership is less than 50% . Yes 50% is a substantial no. but typically in these cases where a company has a potential blockbuster product, ownership is almost 75%+ so there is some caution on the institutional side. I'm not concerned so much regarding the shorts position since I believe they hedged their bets. And of course you would think that the stock would be trading higher prior to the release of the results.......lots of caution is being displayed here. And yes I am long but a little nervous...GLTA

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 2 Replies to bullishonidev
      • bull, Institutional ownership is meaningless. Institutions were loaded to the gills with ENRON and WORLDCOM.

        Allovectin-7 is a FIRST of its kind TECHNOLOGY, that has NEVER had a successful phase 3.

        Dendreon's Provenge is a cell based immune therapy. Allovectin-7 is NOT cell based.

        Allovectin-7 is a plasmid based immune therapy.

        There are NO plasmid based products that have been FDA approved.

        The FIRST of ANYTHING is going to have a lot of skeptics.

        While there is a approved plasmid based immune therapy for DOGS, that was approved by the another US agency... it was NOT an FDA approval.

        DOGS are NOT HUMANS

        The EVIDENCE of SUCCESS is the super LONG DURATION of the phase 3, and the 49 patient cohort of the phase 2.

        The SUPER LONG DURATION of the phase 3 is ALL YOU NEED!!!

      • I'd much rather be in a stock early at 50% before the funds get to 80%+ holdings. Once fund stock holding are at 80% or higher the big upside moves have already taking place. I've seen this fact over and over. Face it .

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • VO, thanks for your five part analysis of the prospective outcome of the A-7 trial. You have managed to reduce the complex statistics to the level of understanding by people without the skill in that area. I have also noticed very few of the posters who have implied failure of the trial challenged your analysis directly, but only your seeming "over-zealous" presentation/discussion. I also find it interesting that the biggest hedge fund tool, AF, no longer came out with his alleged negative bashing directly, but rather using so called survey of his followers to imply A-7 failure! Clearly he sees writing on the wall, so to continue FUD, but using a "survey" form will give him cover when the ultimate trial success is announced. With his change of tactic, it seems to me very positive for A-7 outcome. Of course we'll all know in a couple weeks or so.

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