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Vical Incorporated Message Board

  • elstockjock elstockjock Aug 17, 2013 3:58 AM Flag

    Feuerstein-Ratain Rule

    Look it up.
    This may explain why shorts bet on failure.

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    • The shorts bet on failure because of inside knowledge. No way 15 million shorts would have made such a risk otherwise. With positive results they would have been destroyed and nobody would take that risk for a 2 or 3 bagger. Notice all the shorts after results released before that CC...somebody leaked the info. I know some people on here got out because they had a bad feeling about this study. But I guarantee you 15 million shorts didn't risk getting destroyed based on a gut feeling or an AF article.
      The market is just made up of individual people. So think about what you would do. If you had doubts about allovectin and pulled out, did you then short it?! You didn't because that would have been too risky...unless you had an inside peak at the results.
      The risk of being long was worth it because we had a potential 10x gain with positive results but only 1/2 loss with negative. That risk is acceptable, not the other way around.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 3 Replies to notyourdoctor
      • You are delusional. Enough with the short conspiracies. Why would shorts keep their short open heading into PIII results when a positive outcome would saddle them with losses? I don't know. Why would longs hold heading into PIII results when a negative outcome would saddle them with losses?

        Short placed a bet and took their chances. Longs did the same. Given the PII results and the success rate of the F-R Rule, shorts had every reason to be just as confident (if not more so) than longs.

      • Hey notyourdoctor, why do you think the shorts didn't let the stock price climb a little higher so they could short from higher levels and make even more? Was it a potential margin call? You must have an opinion......

      • In addition to your speculation which makes sense, there is an additional possibility. The short chart that is on IV for Vical shows that shorting continues. It is currently running about 30-40% of daily activity. It will be interesting to see what short interest was for Aug. 15. How many shares were covered early this week?

        IMO continued shorting could happen for two reasons. First, shorts sensing that there is still pressure on longs to sell coupled with weaker buying interest continue to short driving the stock price lower....potentially under $1. The second speculation is that someone interested in buying the company wants to see the price go down so as to buy it cheaper. If the stock price goes to $1 and stays there for awhile, how many longs would be willing to sell their shares for $2? Although the stock would have doubled in price from $1, it would still be about 1/2 of where it was 1-2 weeks ago. The shorts and potential buyers are allies in that they have the same objective. As the price goes down a dime, the shorts make more money and a potential selling price of the company also declines. Right now, there is really no catalyst for the stock price to go up. Good news is in the future.

        Sentiment: Sell

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