Pumpers, bashers, and lots of questions now. Expected this on failure, along with the price drop. As well as the conspiracy theories.
As is my way, I've been reading a lot, and thinking about things. Things that matter to me, and may or may not matter to some of you as well. Things like the way the CC was handled. And the way the pps has begun to erode. And the fact that the people who have cancer have lost another hope they may have had. And a myriad of other thoughts, too many to post.
I have thought long and hard this week about this company, and I asked questions... to myself, to all here, and to others who I respect.
And the answers I've come up with are, without a doubt in my mind, that something is wrong here. Anyway I look at this, I can only come up with two logical conclusions.
Either the trial failed, or it succeeded and the results are being covered up. Neither of these thoughts are appealing to me, for reasons I will explain.
First, if the trial simply failed to meet the endpoints, then it failed. Plain and simple. Now the price is languishing around the 1.50 point, and slowly eroding due to threats of lawsuits, a lack of investor interest, the fact that anything else in the pipeline will take another few years to develop, and the loss of confidence in management over the way this failure is being handled. In this scenario the price will continue to drift lower until such a time comes when we have the next big announcement, which will probably be quite awhile, imo.
What is wrong - Trial failed as usual, shares dropped big time.
Lawsuits, I don't see any big sells by board, in fact there were lots of buys, no merit for any lawsuits. These leaches will go away, I don't see any fraud here, very difficult to prove here even if there is anything.
350 MLN NOL is worth 125 MLN for a potential acquirer. There is Astellas partnership/trial is on. 65 MLN $ cash which is almost 75 cents per share.
I would expect someone buys it for full NOL, it is around 3.50-4.00 per share, which will cost less than $2 per share, with all the IP along with various ongoing trials.
If the results were good, or even fair, and being covered up, then I have even more thoughts and reservations about this company. As should you.
Why would they hide good results? To bring the price down, so company "xyz" can gain the rights to A-7 or buy the company outright in order to commercialize this drug at a later date under a new name. I don't want to be a part of this, if that's the case. The actual data hasn't been released to you or me, the stockholders, And I don't personally believe it will be released. Why withhold the data, the actual real numbers? To make money on the backside, or threats against you. Threats that are real. The only two rational reasons. If the drug was/is equal to chemo in extending life, without the nasty effects of chemo, why wouldn't the company try to get it approved by the FDA, if for no other reason than an alternative to chemo?
As a former business owner, I am surprised by the recent turn of events. I started my business with $1200, a truck, and a toolbox. At the end of my third year, I had nearly $60K in sales, and in year four was looking at $90K in sales, with insurance companies calling me asking if I wanted more work. My point here is that I know how to run a business successfully. So I do have a bit of insight. And for those of you that will doubt or ask why I shut down a profitable business, it was personal. Not a lack of business, potential business, or the economy overall, but personal.
All that being said, I have come to the conclusion that something is wrong here... with this company. Something that I can't determine, with the facts I currently have. Something that will come out in time. Whether that something is a conspiracy, or poor management, or just a drug that failed, time will tell.
I am planning on getting out of my position during the coming week. I made my bed, and will lay in it. I accept my decisions as my own.