Well Piper certainly spoiled the party for ASTE logns, but I listened to the same earnings call and had a much different take:
* A strong dollar will hurt international operations, but who is to say we're going to have a strong dollar -- our deficit spending would argue for the dollar weakening
* Piper totally ignored the fact that ASTE will benefit from non-U.S. governments' stimulus packages (e.g., Australia) in addition to the U.S. stimulus
* At some point, ASTE will get a HUGE boost of business from the U.S. stimulus -- a stock price is a function of ALL future earnings, and the fact that the U.S. earnings will only be a few quarters out from now does not diminish their value significantly
Therefore, I can't understand the financial justification for Piper's move
You just showed pricisely the wrong mind-set that got you into this mess.
ASTE is not a construction company. It makes equipment that may or may not be needed. In a booming economy, I would say you're probably right to expect new orders to come in.
But we're in the worst kind of the recession, and companies will be on saving mode, even if they would get some money in 2010. As for 2009, there will be no big project from the administration. Obama's focus is not on road construction. He is focused on fixing the housing market, the healthcare mess, and more on information highway - broadband build out.
As for the school rebuilding programs authorized, ASTE has nothing to do with it.
So, watch slow dripping to $18 level, and once the next earning is out, the stock will probably under $15.