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  • hosedraggers hosedraggers Jan 17, 2008 10:55 AM Flag

    Have you noticed..........

    Thank you! I may be wrong about how I thought people do who are in the know, or who have been taught or educated on everything about the market. Arent there people who know how this market works, making money every day, or are you saying those who have been a success in investing, they are just those who made the right bets and they have not that much better chance tomorrow of winning their bets than you or I do?

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    • Cool a38b19. Help me here. I want to respond to hose's last remarks. All I can think of is to start somewhere and learn a little at a time. Your last puzzle, hose, is a pretty big question. The market movers sometimes do better than individual investors because they have huge amounts of buying and selling power-fund managers and such. They can litterally jerk things around. You can learn some amount of understanding and foresight on this, but it is a more advanced level.

      H

    • I forgot to close out that last point. Every year there are going to be some winners and losers when you look at how the funds did. Some funds will say they did 30% when the S&P did 3.5% last year. But if you look at long term performance, there are just a handful (10 people or less) who have beaten the S&P 500 for more than 8 years. Bill Miller of Legg Mason had that record for 14 years and then for 2 years in a row has underperformed the market (lost money last year). So 8 (Eight !!) individual fund managers in the thousands and thousands of very well resourced funds have beaten the market every year for 6 years or more. (maybe 8 yrs..cant recall exactly)

      That goes a long way towards proving my point that anyone can have a good year or two (incl me). But the question is can you do it year after year. If not, then may it is as much luck as strategy.

    • I'm advocating learning as much as you can and certainly having a deep insight can make you money. For example yesterdays Wall Street Journal had an article about this guy who made $4.3 Bn for himself by shorting the mortgage market because he felt it would fall and he did so in a very clever way. His timing was just right (luck) and he had deep insights which were right. But his being right, how many people played that market wrong? Its like a lottery ticket. SOMEONE is going to win, but will it be you? That someone can explain all they want about how they picked the lucky numbers but in the end that was pure luck. Ditto for business plans, so many companies get funded for similar concepts with generally good management and even the VC's are never sure which ones will eventually succeed. There are probably dozens of companies with identical business plans and again the winners can talk about their strategy etc. but that would be hard to predict up front.

      I am all for knowledge. It is good to know as much as you can. Just be realistic about the limits of what that implies relative to your investment performance. For myself, I did 139% last year and 135% the previous year. That's just on long equities. No shorts and no options. I use a timing strategy that I invented and makes sense for me. Figure out what makes sense for you.

 
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