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Vonage Holdings Corporation Message Board

  • pac257 pac257 Feb 21, 2013 2:54 PM Flag

    You Knew This Was Coming Soon - Here It Is

    Another Motley hatchet job....

    Keep in mind Vonage earned over 3 times what Motley TOUT 8x8 earned AND Vonage has 3 times the outstanding shares of 8x8. That means Vonage ACTUALLY EARNED ALMOST 10 TIMES what 8x8 earned, while the FOOLS at Motley told you not to worry BEFORE 8x8's earnings disaster AND they told you 8x8 was worth $10.

    Can you believe the FOOLS at Motley say all this VERY POSITIVE STUFF about Vonage and then conclude that it's only "slightly undervalued"?

    Vonage is worth at least $7.40 (20 to 1 P/E ratio TIMES 37 CENTS EARNINGS) NOW

    8X8 is ONLY worth $2.20 (20 to 1 P/E ratio TIMES 11 CENTS EARNINGS)

    The usual BACKHANDED ENDORSEMENT by the FOOLS at Motley:

    Is Vonage Still Undervalued?

    "Since Vonage's (NYSE: VG ) IPO, the stock has been on a near-constant downward slide that destroyed early investors' positions in the business. Analysts and investors blamed management for failing to adapt to new trends in the industry, spending too much on marketing, and a drastically overvalued IPO price. But the last six months have been a great turnaround for the voice-over-Internet pioneer, and the stock has responded with a near-30% climb. In the recent earnings release, the company proved it remains competitive in the Skype era and that a strong marketing campaign can yield big results. Let's take a look at the earnings and see if Vonage still has room to run.

    Cheap!
    At less than nine times forward earnings, Vonage would appear to be a relatively inexpensive business for one deeply involved in the Internet industry. And this is even after the company's aforementioned 30% run-up in the past few months. Does Wall Street ignore the company, or does Mr. Market just not believe in the long-term vitality of voice-over-Internet?

    Realistically, it's because many investors decided the company just wasn't worth their time after years of dismal stock performance. Since its IPO in 2005, the stock has lost 80% of its value, at one point bottoming out at $0.43 per share from an initial price of $13. Vonage went public at an inopportune time, just as Microsoft's Skype was taking off and offering a similar product for free. It crushed Vonage's business.

    But let's fast forward to last week, when the company released its fourth-quarter and full-year 2012 earnings. Management was thrilled to announce that the company is nearing completion of its transformation aimed at bringing the company back to relevance. Major cost restructuring efforts have yielded tens of millions in savings over the last few years, and free cash flow has increased greatly along the way. The company also re-evaluated its credit situation and came out paying substantially lower interest rates this past year.

    The earnings scoop
    Starting with the full year, the company generated $123 million in EBITDA, a major improvement on its net losses in prior years. Churn rates are coming down, with only 15,000 line losses in 2012, down from 30,000 in 2011. Even when the company was failing in the markets, it was generating plenty of cash flow -- $350 million for the past three years. The free cash flow was a big reason that some top-tier value fund managers, such as Bill Martin of Raging Capital, bought the stock like crazy in recent years.

    Quarterly revenue was up just a couple of points (but above Wall Street expectations) based on increased call traffic and a major effort toward international expansion. The company has recently minted agreements with affiliates in the Philippines and Brazil to help drive growth among low-price-point-oriented clients abroad. International calls from North America were up 40% at year's end.

    In addition to an international focus, the company is wisely pouring lots of resources into refining its mobile app. Management says download numbers are growing at an accelerating pace along with more and more usage.

    Overall, management has been effective at turning the company around and generating the all-important free cash flow via organic revenue growth.

    Let's talk value
    Vonage is not the uber-cheap buy it was just a few short months ago, but there is still room to run. The company is no longer in deep turnaround territory, but perhaps approaching a major growth run. It's successfully turned the corner and is adding subscribers while forecasting much more for the future.

    The company's most massive expense, beyond direct costs, is its marketing. If you have your TV on for more than three minutes, you've likely seen a Vonage ad. While some investors and analysts have complained about this major expense, it has paid off lately. If you remove the marketing spend from the income statement, the company is making a bundle of cash at a very low ratio. Not to suggest that the company will discontinue its massive ad spending, but even a slight reduction going forward would boost profits substantially.

    I find Vonage to be slightly undervalued given its growth prospects. Management believes its new initiatives can contribute $100 million in annual revenue by 2014. That would potentially push Vonage's annual take over $1 billion while its current market cap is just $560.95 million.

    Vonage is in prime position to offer the new equivalent of calling cards to lower-income customers in developing areas all over the world while attracting other, more affluent customers via its new mobile offerings and international calling packages. Management has been extremely effective in creating a leaner, more cash-generating business and I believe they will continue to do so going forward. As always, invest only in that which you are knowledgeable and comfortable."

    VONAGE IS WAY, WAY, WAY UNDERVALUED!

    Good luck to all good people.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • The usual BACKHANDED BADMOUTH of Vonage continues with more ridiculous statements that show the FOOLS at Motley either DON'T UNDERSTAND VOIP or INTEND TO MISLEAD INVESTORS about Vonage:

      "Outlook and valuation
      Vonage will continue to target entry-level plans for developed and emerging markets. Competing with giants such as AT&T and Verizon is a nearly impossible task, but the company is making efforts with products such as the new BasicTalk package -- $9.99 for unlimited domestic calling in the United States.

      Mobile is a more compelling growth opportunity for the company. Vonage Mobile has made progress in recent months, recently launching video chat services for iPhone and Android. Of course, this is again an uphill battle with the gorillas in the space -- Apple and Samsung."

      1) Vonage has much better features AND a much lower price than AT&T, Verizon AND the other VOIP competitors.

      2) Vonage DOESN'T COMPETE WITH Apple iPhone and Samsung Android phones (or anyone else's Android phones). Vonage's Apps RUN ON iPhones and Android phones.

      Just ANOTHER HATCHET JOB by the FOOLS at Motley:

      Vonage Still Cheap, but Will It Grow?
      By Michael Lewis May 7, 2013

      Good luck to all good people.

    • Like I said, it's a BS pickoff setup....

      This same guy told you yesterday that Sonus' earnings (LOST 2 CENTS PER SHARE on revenue of ONLY $63.3 million) was a good thing and why Sonus should be UP (it's up another 12% today - OUTRAGEOUS) after that FAILURE:

      Sonus Networks Earnings: Here’s Why Investors are Happy Now
      By Derek Hoffman April 30, 2013

      Today he tells you Vonage EARNED A 6 CENT PROFIT (ON REVENUE OF $209 million - MORE THAN 3 TIMES SONUS' REVENUE), but he spins that 6 CENT PROFIT as bad news:

      Vonage Holdings Earnings: Here’s Why the Stock is Down Now
      By Derek Hoffman May 01, 2013

      Good luck to all good people.

      • 1 Reply to pac257
      • Sonus FINALLY GET DOWNGRADED TODAY and the result:

        Sonus is DOWN 2 WHOLE CENTS after their FAILED EARNINGS LOSS OF 2 CENTS and now they are UP 28 CENTS NET on that PATHETIC PERFORMANCE while Vonage (earned 6 cents) is JUST GETTING BACK TO PRE-EARNINGS PRICES.

        Let me repeat....That, folks, is QUALITY MANIPULATION!

        Good luck to all good people.

    • Sonus LOST ANOTHER 2 CENTS PER SHARE today and these spin doctors call it:

      Sonus Networks Earnings: Here’s Why Investors are Happy Now
      By Derek Hoffman April 30, 2013

      Absolutely RIDICULOUS!!

      Just imagine how they would BADMOUTH A 2 CENT LOSS if that was Vonage!

      Then, they write this rubbish (same author) about Vonage today, in time to (hopefully) scare longs into selling, encourage shorting and weaken the price:

      Vonage Holdings Earnings Preview: Can This Streak Continue?
      By Derek Hoffman April 30, 2013

      Furthermore, IT AIN'T EVEN ACCURATE!

      Check out this lie from the article:

      "Earnings Expectations: Analysts expect earnings of $0.07 per share on revenues of $222.38 million. Currently, the company’s P/E ratio stands at 19.19.

      Analyst Trends: Analysts have a more positive outlook for the company’s next-quarter performance. Over the past three months, the average estimate for next quarter’s earnings has risen from a profit of $0.06 to a profit $0.07. For the current year, the average estimate is a profit of $0.27, which is better than the estimate ninety days ago."

      EXCUSE ME.... If Vonage's P/E ratio is 19.19 (like the article said) and they are projected to earn 27 cents this year (like the article said), then why isn't the share price $5.18?

      Do the math.... 19.19 times 27 cents = $5.18 - NOT $3.03

      That's a RIDICULOUSLY LOW P/E ratio of 11.22, NOT 19.19 or the INSANELY OVERRATED 36.15 P/E ratio for 8x8 ($7.23 with ONLY 20 cents projected earnings).

      Good luck to all good people.

    • Don't tell.... me the FOOLS at Motley are REALLY WARMING UP TO VONAGE:

      Not exactly.... they still work in FOOLISH STATEMENTS like this:

      "Vonage has a few tricks up its sleeve, such as free video calls to in-network subscribers, but given the rather small Vonage user base, this may not be enough to encourage growth."

      EXCUSE ME.... are you KIDDING?

      What a RIDICULOUS STATEMENT.... FREE Perks like VIDEO are PRECISELY the things that would ENCOURAGE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH.... Video is ALREADY FREE to current Vonage subscribers. The FOOLS at Motley just couldn't resist throwing in their USUAL BACKHANDED HATCHET JOB.

      Still, it's A MUCH BETTER AND MORE ACCURATE picture of the VERY POSITIVE FUNDAMENTALS that are causing Vonage to rise. That's what worries me about the FOOLS at Motley. If they are finally (APPEARANTLY) saying good things about Vonage, they probably know something that they can put A NEGATIVE SPIN on after earnings. That doesn't mean there is anything negative, but you can bet the FOOLS at Motley will tell you that BS PROPAGANDA.

      BTW, as usual, the FOOLS at Motley NEVER ANSWER THEIR OWN HEADLINE QUESTION - THE POINT OF THEIR ARTICLE:

      Is Vonage's Stock Destined for Greatness?
      By Alex Planes April 29, 2013

      The answer is YES!

      Good luck to all good people.

    • Naturally, Vonage hiring David T. Pearson from Deutsche Bank to become its new Treasurer and CFO gave the FOOLS at Motley another chance to BACKHANDEDLY BADMOUTH VONAGE.

      Ask yourself:

      If this hiring is so importantly dilutive to share holders as the FOOLS say, how does it stack up to the compensation at other companies and competitors?

      Notice, the FOOLS at Motley make NO COMPARISONS (AT&T, Verizon, Comcast, etc.) to prove their point. I suspect those companies and others pay just as much OR MORE for quality managers - SO WHERE ARE THE NUMBERS?

      They don't call them FOOLS for nothing - but their CONFLICT-OF-INTERSET SCAM doesn't fool me.

      MORE FOOLISHNESS FROM Motley: Vonage Hires a CFO, Dilutes Its Shareholders

      Good luck to all good people.

    • Well.... you knew that this was coming as soon as Vonage went on ANOTHER PRICE RISE.

      It's "The Old Motley Scam" brought to you by the FOOLS at Motley.

      The usual backhanded badmouthing of Vonage to PUMP their MISERABLY FAILED CALL INVESTMENTS. Absolutely NO MENTION of the 50% LOSSES in price by CALL, just this SUPER THIN NONSENSE:

      Is MagicJack's Growth Selling for Cheap
      April 3, 2013

      And just for good measure, one of their pals writes ANOTHER Insider Selling Scam article headlining Vonage as the worst, when EVERYONE ELSE named in the article SOLD MORE SHARES (in dollar value) than the Vonage insider.

      WOW!!

      Wall St. Cheat Sheet
      CBS CEO Sells 125K Shares and 4 Insider Sales to Note
      April 04, 2013

      Got to keep Vonage down, got to keep Vonage down, got to keep Vonage down, got to keep Vonage down, got to keep Vonage down, got to keep Vonage down, got to keep Vonage down.......

      Good luck to all good people.

    • OUTRAGEOUS!! - Just imagine:

      1) The FOOLS at Motley said 8x8 was worth $10 on projected earnings of ONLY 21 cents.

      2) 8x8 MISSES their earnings number - that's MISS.

      3) 8x8 gets DOWNGRADED after earnings (Northland Securities) because of FUNDAMENTALS.

      4) Your share price CRASHES $1.89 (24%) since earning failure.

      Then, today MYSTERIOUSLY on THE-VERY-SAME-DAY:

      1) You get UPGRADED (Northland Capital) based on NOTHING NEW.

      2) The FOOLS at Motley write A POSITIVE ARTICLE (that's right - POSITIVE) about their OVERPRICED 8x8 STOCK and post TOTAL LIES about the UNWORTHY FUNDAMENTALS:

      "The specialist in high-margin voice-over-IP software took a hit last month, when the company's third-quarter earnings report wasn't quite as stellar as hoped, though it does have many strong and growing numbers, such as revenue per customer. Some wonder whether it will end up acquired. Its recent P/E ratio of 6 is also appealing."

      -------------------------------------------

      Let's be clear.... 8x8 EARNED ONLY 11 CENTS IN 2012 and they are projected to earn ONLY 21 CENTS IN 2013. Therefore, 8x8 CANNOT HAVE A P/E RATIO OF 6.

      If you do the math for 8x8 at 11 cents per share for a share price of $6.73 it equals a P/E RATIO OF 61 (not 6). With earnings of 11 cents, a P/E of 6 would be a price of ONLY $0.66.

      EVEN if you do the math for 8x8 at 21 cents per share for a share price of $6.73 it equals a P/E RATIO OF 32 (not 6). With earnings of 21 cents would be a share price of ONLY $1.26.

      If Vonage was valued at a 32 P/E the share price would be $11.84 (37 cents earnings times 32). If Vonage was valued at a 61 P/E the share price would be $22.57 (37 cents earnings times 61).

      Three things are clear:

      1) 8x8 is WAY OVERRATED

      2) Vonage is WAY UNDERRATED

      3) You CANNOT TRUST the FOOLS at Motley.

      Good luck to all good people.

    • Advise all to read the article directly. Punk257 does not say where quotes end and where his opinion begins.

      • 2 Replies to maintainyourposture
      • Seems obvious to me, Pac257 posted a couple of personel comments preluding the posted article, but I gather the article's starting point is "Is vonage still unervalued?"

        The only thing I don't agree with Pac on is that Motley did a "hatchet" job on VG in this article. Personally I believe that Motley may have covered their shorts and are ready for this to run. The over all context of the article was very positive. Motley, as of late, has posted positive articles and bullish comments about VG. This is a complete reversal from only 6 months ago when Motley was bashing. I believe this is a result of VG's positive perfomance and prospects going forwad.

        I tend to do more reading, but I am in this for the long haul, and I am more positive lately on VG than in a long time. My position is long 10K shares above $5. Things are looking up!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I posted THE ENTIRE ARTICLE WITH QUOTATIONS - Not like basher(s).

        That's PRECISELY WHY I USUALLY DO THAT - So EVERYONE can access THE ARTICLE and you DON'Y HAVE TO TAKE MY WORD FOR IT.

        See.... I don't have to CHANGE ALIASES or post OUT-OF-CONTEXT-QUOTES.

        I'm NOT afraid that you will read the ACTUAL ARTICLE.... THAT'S WHAT I WANT YOU TO DO. I would post a link to the article (like I always used to do), but yahoo deleted that ability and kept the MULTIPLE ALIASES that basher(s) use to create a LIAR'S CLUB on these boards.

        CAPICE....PUNK?

        Good luck to all good people.

 
VG
3.77+0.09(+2.45%)Dec 19 4:07 PMEST

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