Has anyone thought about TAKEOVER?
The movement of PPS and Institutional ownership is very familiar to me. If we see this move up further, a takeover could be in the cards, I have seen $3 stocks move up into the $teens very quickly before a deal .
WHY would anybody take VG over?
1.) GREAT UNIVERSAL PRODUCTS - Useable ANYWHERE there is broadband or mobile!
2.) $800+ M Revenues 2013
3.) Growing Revenues projected - $100M in 2014
4.) FY2012: Cash from operations $120M. Free Cash Flow $84 M
5.) Projected 2013 adjusted Earnings: $.25+ -
6.) FY2012: EBITDA: $124 M
7.) Great Name Recognition, with the recognized best product.
8.) HUGE MARKET, INTERNATIONAL, not limited by proprietary service, OR existing customers, OR Geography.
9.) New products and services! Vonage World, Vonage Mobile World. APPS. More to come in Media, Gaming, Mobile, Video etc.
10.) 2.3 M customers, a growing base the last few quarters
11.) Intellectual property
13 New Business Customers and products with Vocalocity.
WHO would be likely take them over?
1.) ANY one of the CABLE's, to expand outside of their territory, internationally, enter the mobile sector, or just plain want to become the largest supplier.
2.) ANY one of the TELCO Companies, national or INTERNATIONAL, to expand outside of their territory.
3.) ANY of the MEDIA GIANTS could be interested. Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, etc.
4.) Any of the Social Networks
5.) ANY investment firm that wants to enter the hottest M&A sector.
HOW MUCH would a reasonable offer be?
Ring Central - IPO a few months ago - 8X Revenues (lost $1.13 ttm earnings) Vonage = $32 a share
TAX WRITE OFF /SHR (EOY 2012) = $5.30
A company that was paying taxes could buy this out and realize $1.32 a share in tax benefits at a 25% tax rate. $1.75 a share at a 33% tax rate.
Interesting answer, Dave. I seem to recall the fact that we have an M&A specialist on the board at this time. Wasn't he the guy that talked Vocalocity into taking 20% of their price in stock. You don't usually need those guys on the board, IMO, if you just want them to negotiate the purchase of a small company. We'll see. We're not going away any time soon.
You are right about it.It can happen at least expected moment with no prior signs.In this respect management people are just like politicians.They are in business of selling confidence and there is nothing wrong with it.My distrust is directed to those who confuse confidence with hope.