Your little tidbit:
<<< - Lot of volume for 20 cents - >>>
is a huge observation. Wednesday it moved up 42 cents on 863k and Thursday 20 cents on 1.03M. Cause vs. Effect. More cause, less effect. Of course it was up against that 14.36 low of the earnings downdraft....and rejected it, closing at 14.32.
I think the turn down in the general market could very well occur tomorrow - If we get a gap up in the morning I will get short the market and long volatility after the jobs report - call it what you want - double top - retest sell - 78.6% retrace - whateva - I avoided going short the last two days because of the $NYMOT but now starts to look interesting ...
We shall see tomorrow AM -
Sorry, the Yen exloded off the low on the monthly chart in February. SNE has been following right along and has now done a .382 retracement. Today SNE had enormous volume but the price went nowhere. I need to get my head wrapped around that; maybe see what happens tommorow. Normally you don't want price and volume to disagree, but there is the currency exchange to consider. The dollar/yen today was/is flat so I expect that is why SNE was flat despite the huge volume.
SNE is definately a currency play but has long term potential I think given how high the Yen has gotten. I was expecting another Pearl Harbor attack for what our Fed Bank has been doing to them. But I think things might be turning for them. But on that same note, we have Japan needing a weaker currency and we have Europe in desparate need of a weaker Euro which can only mean the Dollar will have to go up. And if that happens our equities will go down at least until our markets adjust to a rising dollar.
I too think the brand has potential but have yet to buy. Still short but that has nothing to do with my opinion of the company itself but rather my reading of the tape. I still believe the next buying opportunity cannot happen until 13.25 is tested and 12.81, if on low volume, would offer a low risk entry.
The IWM is rising into resistance on decreasing volume. The other indicies too, but the IWM shows it most clearly. You'd expect to see volume increasing coming into resistance but its not. Therefore the opposite will happen; a turn down; tommorow I expect.
I'm starting to keep an eye on the Dollar:Yen. I think it has reached a supercycle low. Yesterday it exploded off a 20+ year low. Therefore I am also watching Sony, SNE, looking to go long. Sony will benefit by a weaker Yen.
Yes I agree with you - someone "pinned" this stock the last two days - I don't get watch Level 2 trades that closely but I was paying special attention to the trades the last 2 days thanks to the departure of our dear friend Mr. Daniels and someone did a herculean job of pinning the stock and distributing a lot of it -
Way more buys yesterday - today I wouldn't be surprised if there was a negative money flow - Lot of volume for 20 cents - maybe you could even call it a bear flag although a pretty steep one on the daily -
I'll be around here for a while unless something radically changes - I like the 3-5 year play on this one - the next month - who knows maybe it goes back down to $12 with an overall market sell-off - but if it does I will just buy more -
I like the way the CEO talks too - he is a clever one hinting at certain things if you listen closely like all the good ones do - I really want to see them sign an OEM deal with somebody big - dare I say apple - But an OEM deal where you get their buds instead of the normal crappy ones with a smart phone seems like it makes the most sense - Or at least start offering upgrades at Point of Purchase like the old Dell model -
Good luck to all -
Turtle, I am impressed with your analysis. Allow me to add the following.
The big hits to the downside in the last couple weeks are real. That is, they were on big volume, therefore big players were involved; real prices.
The last couple days are NOT real. Both days, on an intraday chart, you can see how it was marked up on low volume and sold/distributed at a higher level. This is a campaign of a large player/s selling off inventory to the herd. These prices are NOT real.
The dip today provided valuable information. It was a test of supply; a "spring". It went down like a waxed sled. What's that tell ya? Plenty of supply (weak hands) right?
You are right, the big players were absorbing the sells in that dip (and testing supply) and then they marched it right back up to the upper range and then proceeded to distribute again, continuing their defence of the 14.30 line. When they have exhausted their inventory and perhaps positioned to the short side they'll quit defending 14.30. it will fall until it finds demand, which is below 13.25, a real price.
Man - someone sold (or Shorted) a LOT of stock today at 14.30$ and the thing hung in all day - Funny how this thing gets "pinned" to certain prices where all the action takes place - yesterday was 14$ today was $14.30 -
We still have work to do to crack $14.90 but interesting day - Someone was definitely working this stock and absorbing a lot of sells except around 1pm when they tanked it on a huge sell streak - Big volume too - wonder if those silly investor conferences had anything to do with it ... giant bear trap on the market in the last two days doesn't hurt either -
Apparently it did. . . that was panic selling that started in AH right when the resignation was announced. Glad I held. Wish I had filled on the dip, but I bought some FTE instead which is doing quite well right now.
Bulls had a good day. This long wishes it had closed closer to the HOD though.
But as they say, don't look a gift horse in the mouth.