Tom, I may have had MITK wrong. It doesn't seem to want to give up the highs or prematurely attack the gap above. It just continues to build cause to get up thru that supply line.
Tuesday it did another uptrhust above 4.98; testing the above supply and failed; so it's not quite ready yet and now looking to test the bottom of the range, 4.23.
But it's had 3 upthrusts in the past 6 trading days; that looks bullish. It may go for it on the next attempt higher. Is there any new about to come out next week?
a lot of bank launching and on the 18th they have a bill pay conferance that I would expect possible news on their bill pay platform and who they have signed up to use it. It looks like they got rid of the big seller friday.In the long run it can't help but go up as thousands of banks license their technology
On Aug 23rd and 24th it tested the waters above $5 with heavier volume and sold it to close back into the range and then again on the 28th with less enthusiam and the rest of last week fell back into Friday. I think the smartmoney was testing higher and sold it back down to buy more.
Friday though looked like stopping action, as you alluded. And it tested 8/23 on lower volume; short term bullish.
I was looking at float turnover on the weekly. It has 20.6M stock in the float. It traded one float the 6 weeks following the selling climax then it popped up to a high of 4.75. Then it traded another float for six weeks and then popped up to 4.98. Now, in these past 5 weeks, it doesn't want to give up those gains and it has traded about 14M shares. I'd say it's within a week or two of making a move one way or the other.
If this past 5 weeks has been re-accumulation and not distribution, the smart money needs to get rid of weak hands. They don't want them along for the ride because the weakhands will be happy with small gains and present selling pressure on the way up. The smartmoney will be positioned at lower prices and they don't want to buy anymore than necessary at higher prices. Therefore, they may try to shake them out. Like what happened on July 19th, 20, and 23rd. If they do it this time, they'd probably knock it down to the $4 area and pick up the rest of their position at bargain prices.
The flip side is that the smart money is distributing. But I don't think so. There just isn't enough gain in it for them from the previous float turnover.
OP, do you have an opinion on (SPPI)? They have excellent earnings, a huge cash hoard, no debt, and very high short interest, yet the stock goes no-where except down. Be interested in your take on it. Thanks.
On any chart you should first scan the chart landscape for the 5 or 6 highest volumes and then draw horizontal lines and you'll see these provide support and resistance. Often times gaps have high volume associated with them which is why gaps get retested. On the daily SPPI chart you have these horizontal lines:
Dec 09, 2011....$12.85
Mar 01, 2012....$12.25
Apr 05, 2012....$11.40 and 10.55
Apr 24, 2012....$10.43
Aug 08, 2012....$11.71
So, you have a range of real prices of between about $10.50 to $13.00. There are real because that's where the most market participation took place and it is at these prices where the big money stepped in to defend the price. Price consolidated in that range for about 2 months, May and June. Big Money was accumulating. Then it got marked up, had a distribution TR, and then marked down. It was a capaign by the composite man, the CM, the composite of big operators in the stock. The CM for the most part only works in the trading ranges. He buys 10 at the low side and sells 9 at the top of the range..all the while net buying. And he does the opposite when distributing. Once he's fully invested or short, he uses news to move the stock...then his work is over. The funds and specs take it from there to mark it up or mark it down. The funds and specs buy breakouts and sell break downs.
In mark-ups the longer bars are up and in mark-downs the longer bars are down. Obvious, but often overlooked while its happening.
So where is it now? Back into the real prices. It will consolidate for awhile longer between $10.50 and $13.00; currently being supported by 11.71 and can't seem to get its (_)_) up from that level. But, it was wounded, there's a lot of supply above; funds and specs wanting out.
If you draw a reverse trendline channel thusly:
Supply line: highs of Jan 11th to July 10
and then a parallel support line passing thru the low between the above, Apr 16th.
Then you'll see that the lower line is in the 10.50 area. It can't bounce off the 11.71 and 10.50 is in play. That's a rough sketch of what's going on.