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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

  • onepoint272 onepoint272 Sep 19, 2012 12:05 PM Flag

    $9 Looking Inevitable

    No bounce away from danger, no good bounce. Classic dead cat bounce.

    Assuming it will bounce to 13.49 resistance, then a simple 1:1 extension will bring this into $9.33.

    13.49 - (16.00-11.84) = 9.33

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    • When is it going to hit $9.33? One could make a lot shorting this stock if this move is indeed inevitable, thus guaranteed.

    • onepoint272 Then short, short, short this stock! :) And buy a tent so you'll have somewhere to live when you lose your home. Or mom and dad toss you out of their home after following your advice. Go for it - no guts no glory.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • There's simply not enough demand for this stock this week. This bounce thus far has not even produced a 38.2% retracement which is $13.43, coming off the $16.00 high. I suspect the general market will be down on Thursday and that might help to bring some liquidity into SKUL. But there is strong resistance at $13.49, so 38.2% might be the best retracement to be achieved.

      With that shallow of a retracement the next leg down has a higher probability of exceeding a 1.0 extension, which I previously noted would be $9.33. A onepoint272 (1.272) extension would be $8.19 and a 1.618 extension would be $6.76, again assuming we bounce to the $13.49 resistance before op-ex.

      I would suggest that the longs here be on top of their game in the next couple of days.

      I have no position but I may short this dead cat and then start looking to get long at either $9, $8, or $7 for a retest near $11.84.

      • 2 Replies to onepoint272
      • onepoint272, Then SHORT, SHORT, SHORT and we will watch you go down in flames. Come on, onepoint, - no guts no glory. :)

        For the rest of us, here are some numbers that should gladden the heart not to mention they're expanding their markets into Asia and Europe and adding product line as wll.

        Profit Margin (ttm): 7.86%
        Operating Margin (ttm): 16.58%
        Return on Assets (ttm): 20.69%
        Return on Equity (ttm): 39.86%

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Looking intraday for the past week, there's obvious supply at $13.25. What's needed is a catalyst and a gap up to the $14 area to discourage those sellers in between. Without that I don't see much hope for not breaking under the all time lows.

        One could make the argument that 12.25 has been holding but that's manipulation. When the stock crashed the buyers (shorts, smart money, MM) came in between about 12.25 and 11.84 en mass. The following day they opened it up above 12.25 and have been distributing, that is supporting 12.25 and selling off their inventory acquired during the crash. That's simply the mechanics of a dead cat bounce. When they are done they'll pull their support of 12.25.

        I cited targets using Fib extensions in my previous post because once it gets below 11.79 there is no historical support. Its an area of all time lows. The long term regression channel however with 2 standard deviation offsets shows a lower line of about $10.50. So, that's not as bad. And using fib extension on the weekly chart, the 0.618 extension is $10.46. So there is agreement for the $10.50 area; it could hold.

    • If the broader market corrects... SKUL is a sub $10 stock. They will hold it @ 12.50 until Sep options expiry and then take it down

 
SKUL
7.28-0.04(-0.55%)Jul 9 4:00 PMEDT

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