Tuesday's daily pivot was 9.50 and the high was 9.47....big improvement from previous two days where we didn't even get close to reaching up to the pivot. It still closed under the next day's (Wednesday's) pivot = 9.18, but much closer to it than it previously has been. The ranges between the resistance's and supports have substantially tightened.
The 5-day S & R's tighten up into the future days ahead provided volatility decreases, which it should.
A = 16.75 (Aug 13th high)
B = 11.84 (Sept 13th low)
C = 14.58 (Oct 5th high)
D = 9.67 for a 100% extension - did not hold
D = 8.33 for a 127.2% extension - next logical target
The 8.33 target is confirmed by the Daily Pivot Support 3 = 8.24 and by the lower support line of the trend channel defined by the high of Nov 11, 2011, the high of Aug 13th 2012 and the parallel support line passing thru the low of Dec 13, 2011.
The $8.00 to $8.33 area appears to be a logical buy zone.
Using the 14.58 swing high and assuming it actually gets to a low of $8.00, then fibbonacci retracements would be the following:
38.2% = 10.51
50.0% = 11.29
61.8% = 12.07 ($12 is the major supply line)
I own AMTG, another mREIT. Both it and AGNC have that large spike down on October 15th. I suspect that low wants to get tested.....high volume lows/highs are price magnets. I believe I'm going to hang in there and let it test...as long as the test is on lower volume than Oct 15th it should hold.
AGNC also has a high-volume spike on Aug 7th at $30.30. It's under it now but it's under it on lower volume, unless the volume come in this afternoon it could be a false break down.
Mine just reported yesterday and had conference call this morning. There was only one question during the Q&A.....so not much concern out there or no-one wants to show their hand???
I guess we need to watch the volume as they come into that Oct 15th low. If it starts to accelerate then I suppose it may be prudent to get out of town for a while. But, below that low, looking at the weekly chart, AGNC has an area of congestion which should support it in the $28 area.