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Skullcandy, Inc. Message Board

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  • ribi1 ribi1 Nov 23, 2012 8:51 AM Flag

    Held 13500 shares since mid $12

    Keep an eye on what Congress does in December. If they increase 2013 tax rates (likely ) look for a large number of shorts in SKUL to cover their positions in Dec., which will drive the price up. The shorts will want to realize profits in 2012 to avoid paying higher tax on their gains next year. Given the low volume on this stock, that dynamic should move the stock.

    The next pivot point will likely be their 4t quarter earnings announcement early next year. If they beat their consensus earnings, look for the shorts to head for the hills. This stock's current price is already reflecting the chance of disappointing 4th quarter earnings. Absent any major moves in the overall stock market in January, SKUL will likely drift up as the earnings date approaches, especially if its trading price is still in single digits. Shorts won't want to risk a good earnings announcement if they already have nice profits in their positions, so many will cover.

    In summary, not sure where the bottom is on this stock in the near term because of the heavy short action, but fundamentally it is trading pretty cheap right now. Expect to earn at least a $1 a share in fourth quarter with growth again next year. I would not sell at this price because in the long run it is a good value at $8, regardless of the short term swings the rest of this year.

6.085+0.325(+5.64%)3:17 PMEDT