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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

  • onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 29, 2012 3:41 AM Flag

    Andrezen

    Encouraging day, very bullish no doubt, but I sold with the intent of getting back in soon; here's why.

    It pushed higher (HOD=8.86) with volume (1.045M). It was going against the stick of Nov 8th with a low of $8.50 which had 1.264M shares traded that day. Not quite enough volume to close into that upper range. So, that tells me it needs to consolidate to build a bit more cause to break and hold $8.50. There are sellers up there and their selling needs to be absorbed. The next level beyond 8.50 that needs to be overcome is the low of Nov 15th, $9.04.

    On the 30-minute chart it has been in a uniform downtrend channel going back to Nov 6th. The 4th 30-min period today broke above the top (supply) line of that channel and did it decisively with volume. Then the 5th 30-min period it ran up to the HOD of 8.86 and was overcome by supply, sellers came in and drove it back down to the high of the 4th period, 8.60. The 4th period was a buying bar but the 5th bar was stopping action, a short-term buying climax, not bullish short term.. So, then it consolidated under 8.60 the rest of the day closing at 8.48. The weekly pivot R1 level is 8.49 by the way. Also, the last 30-min period of Nov 19th had a high of 8.41 on 211k shares. It pushed into that today during the 10th period with only 65K, not enough to break lower and so it bounced back up to retest the high of the 10th period, 8.55. So, we need to keep an eye on that 8.41 level established on the last period of the19th with 211k. If it gets under it with lighter volume, then its not real, it would be manipulation. Tomorrow's daily pivot is also at $8.42.

    Getting back to that downtrend channel: what they love to do is retest the channel after a breakout.

    So, where do I think it is going? Thursday's daily pivot is 8.42 and the daily S1 level is 7.97 and the R1 is at 8.92. The weekly pivot is $8.10, S1 is 7.59, R1 is 8.49, R2 is 9.00. The channel retest could occur anywhere between 8.10 and 8.00 depending on when it tests tomorrow. But, often they don't have to touch the channel, just get close. The high of the 30-min stick that had the huge block trade on Tuesday is at 8.12. The actual block trade went off at 8.03 as I recall. An AB=CD with A=8.86, B=8.35, C=8.55, puts D at 8.04. Looking at Fib retracements on a 30-min chart, between the 7.70 low and 8.86 high, the 38.2% is at 8.42 which it hit today and is tomorrow's pivot. But if it completes that AB=CD down that would put it into a 61.8%% retracement = 8.14. The 78.6% retracement between Wednesday's low and high is $8.11 and that would complete a bullish Gartley pattern. So we have a bullish Gartley, Fib confluence and the high of the big block trade (8.12). I'm very bullish at that price level.

    Also, I think the S&P's are headed lower on Thursday. On Wed morning they pushed down and rejected lower price, but they pushed down on heavy volume and I think that low may get retested because on the way up it is going against the high-volume downdraft of Nov. 7th. So far though the Asian markets have proved me wrong and the European market just opened and they have opened up strong pushing the S&P futures up to a retest of the high set during the Asian market. At this moment it looks like the futures are setting up to double top.....we will see in the morning.

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SKUL
6.76-0.28(-3.98%)Jul 31 3:59 PMEDT

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