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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

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  • onepoint272 onepoint272 Dec 5, 2012 6:17 PM Flag

    Thoughts?

    The 2012 yearly pivots are:

    R1 = 20.02
    Pivot = 15.90
    S1 = 8.40
    S2 = 4.29

    These can be seen a weekly sharpchart on Stockcharts with the pivots selected as one of the overlays if you wish to check my calculations.. So, SKUL basically found support at the yearly S1 level. The longer the pivot period the stronger.....so a yearly S1 is very strong and it doesn't make much sense to go short here or for that matter hold short at this level. Better to wait for next year's pivot to get hit.

    Assuming we close the year at the S1 level, 8.40, then next years pivot will be (17.48 + 7.70 + 8.40)/3 = 11.19. There is a 70 to 80% probability of hitting the pivot point sometime in 2013; a 34% move up from here. Next year's R1 level would be 14.68, a 76% move up from here. For all you guys holding from the higher levesl, 14.68 is probably the most you can expect in 2013 since a yearly R1 is very strong and just from inspection of the chart that price is in the midst of historical congestion where get-back-to-even selling would be intense. For those of us accumulating down here, 76% would be great.

    On the bearish side, next year's S1 level would be at 4.90 but fundamentals aside, probability favors the pivot, 11.19, getting hit first. Of course if a sign of weakness (wide price movement down with high volume) occurs in this trading range then my bias is wrong and I will reverse my position, but I seriously doubt that possibility without some sort of cataclysmic catalyst.

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