Pull up a daily chart of LULU and you'll see a buying climax on Sept 7th. Since then it's been range bound by that bar. For about 1-1/2 months it traded within the upper half of Sept 7th and then for another 1-1/2 months within the lower half of Sept 7th. It just reported and beat again for the 13th straight quarter on earnings and revenues, BUT, it forecasted that 4th quarter same store sales would grow in the upper single digits, which is not double digits growth, therefore a disappointment.
The stock ran down to its monthly pivot S1 level and then bounced BIG with BIG volume; a sign of strength (SOS)................an SOS on the right side of a trading range......bullish.
Cheers OP, good to hear your thoughts on what to watch for. Again, I appreciate the fact that you give up your time to post this stuff so that people like me can learn a bit. Obviously people should always be wary of anything posted on these boards, but you seem genuine, knowledgable and helpful. A rarity among the twits on here, but thanks.
I have watched these message boards a long time and I am not sure why everyone seems to think onepoint is the great prognosticator. Each post tells of the pivots, resistence levels, and the support levels. If the stock can move past R1 then look out it can continue until hitting R2. However if going down and breaking past S1 then it can free fall to S2. Oh look, it has been in this trading range for a long time so it is building cause. Now is that positive cause or negative cause? It will make a hard break either way, just depends on what cause is building and we will know once it breaks past the R1 or S1 level. Then a day passes and a recap happens. See, the stock hit R1 and came back. OR, the stock broke past R1 and is now in a higher trading range. See, I told you so. And if the stock went down, see the stock hit S1 and was supported, OR see it broke past S1 and is now in that lower trading range. Now if it can break past the new R1 then that is bullish. We will see, but that new support needs to hold on higher volume. Every analysis is after the fact and his comments BEFORE the day leave it open for anything to happen to be explained. He can't tell you if there is positive or negative cause. He can't tell you if an R1 or S1 level will hold. He can't tell you if there will be higher or lower volume. Its like taking a world event and looking at Nostradomus's predictions and saying, "see he wrote about this very thing here". Well, all of his predictions are vague and normally talk about plague, war, death, floods, fires. Each year each one of these occurs somewhere in the world, and multiple times. Just because he said it would happen again doesn't make his prophecies correct. Wouldn't it be great if he could actually predict what would happen, where, and when BEFORE it happens. Otherwise the comments are all white noise.
The bottom line with this stock revolves around earnings. If they exceed then a whole bunch of new retail buyers burst in and the price goes up until volume dissipates and the shorts begin to drive it down. The new retail investors scratch their heads on how it can happen expecting that big short squeeze, can't figure it out, and just like most investors nowadays if they didn't get their quick buck already then they are gone driving that price down further. Shorts cover and the cycle happens again. Ask Tom Payne who mysteriously disappeared on this message board and on seekingalpha when both his big short squeeze predictions of SKUL and MITK ended up in big losses. Trying to trade this stock technically may be OK for a day or two, but doing so near earnings is a big mistake. It is also a HUGE risk considering the manipulation this stock sees by some big investors. This stock will not see a price rise and a prolonged time at that higher price unless it continues to grow and people believe they have a brand. Once big time investors believe this and BUY, the cycle will continue. So either you buy the stock and hold it for a really long time banking on the brand to stick and their growth to continue, OR you don't believe the brand and get out (or sell short like some people do). Unfortunately too many investors think holding for a long time means 2-3 months. The average stock was held for 8 years back in 1960. Today it is 4 months. You need to drown out all the volatility and white noise news and instead invest in something you have full confidence has a great business model and will provide appreciation to your investment then cling to it like your teddy bear at night.