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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

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  • coreylynnh@sbcglobal.net coreylynnh Dec 19, 2012 3:42 PM Flag

    Is this stock broken?

    Onepoint, you still don't know if SKUL is going up or down in the short term. So you are suggesting accumulate shares now. Again, there is a 50/50 chance this will go one way or the other because you cannot tell me where it is going. So if there is a SOW do you think that most of the people posting here will recoginize it soon enough to avoid a loss? Most of the posters here say things like "This short squeeze is coming" or "how come the stock didn't go up with these neat Navigator headset news". Remember Tom Payne, where is he? He had a silly following here on this message board and people asked daily "how high is this thing going", but he has dropped off the face of the Earth since the stock plunged. If the stock does rise most of these retail investors will again be asking "how high can this thing go" or "this is the short squeeze we have been waiting for". Then when the stock plunges again they hold until they are at a loss and then panic sell. The average retail investor will lose money on a stock like this if they are trading it for the short term. That is why the big money is in this stock because they can manipulate it for their profit at the expense of the dumbfounded retail investors. If you are opening a position on this stock now for a short term investment you are a slave to the manipulators.

    Perhaps you see this as a great risk/reward scenario. The stock could drop and at the SOW you get out therefore the downside is "limited". But if there is a SOS then you feel the upside is far greater. Perhaps that is your strategy. I have seen a lot of investors do well taking short term risks like these only to lose it all on one or a few bad ones. All I am saying is that a stock like this is dangerous for the average investor because they are watching all the wrong things and make a lot of bad decisions.

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    • Yes, I agree with 90% of what you say. Great discussion, thanks.

      You're right, I can't argue that there is a 50/50 chance right now, except that supply (selling) has dried up. But since demand hasn't proved itself yet with an SOS, the direction it is still up in the air and this could be a re-distribution trading range. But this 50/50 condition is irrespective of strategy.

      So no matter how you look at it, it comes down to picking a bias, bullish, bearish, or sideways; the last case requiring an option strategy.

      As for my bullish bias strategy, buying at the low of the range with a stop just below, limits risk because if it falls out of this range on volume (SOW) then the next stop is $6.75. And the reason to sell most at the top of the range on a lack-of-demand bar, or short-on-thrust bar is to take most of the bread along with some profits off the table just in case my bias is wrong. When a sign of strength (SOS) appears then of course it's off to the races. It may take a long time, I dunno, but in the meantime there is range to be traded for profit and longer-term stock to be accumulated with low risk.

      The range is roughly 7.91 to 9.04 or 14%. Even if you can capture $8 to $8.75 that is 9% and nothing to sneeze at. If you could do that 4 times that's 36%. And then if a SOW shows up and you get stopped out at 9% loss (at the most) you're still ahead. Of course if a SOW comes in right after your first buy then you lose 9%, but that's all part of the game, a far cry better than holding it down to 6.75. If an SOS shows up, well you're already in and off to the races.

      You said:

      "Remember Tom Payne, where is he? He had a silly following here on this message board and people asked daily "how high is this thing going", but he has dropped off the face of the Earth since the stock plunged. If the stock does rise most of these retail investors will again be asking "how high can this thing go" or "this is the short squeeze we have been waiting for". Then when the stock plunges again they hold until they are at a loss and then panic sell. The average retail investor will lose money on a stock like this if they are trading it for the short term."

      I cannot argue with that. There were clear indicators back then that it was time to exit and a shorter outlook and a little trading knowledge would have been beneficial to them. So much for being average. The average intent on staying average will always get fleeced and should stay out of the market.

 
SKUL
7.91+0.33(+4.35%)Sep 17 4:00 PMEDT

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