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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

  • coreylynnh@sbcglobal.net coreylynnh Dec 21, 2012 8:56 AM Flag

    Answer to nahid

    Since I don't know the price you acquired your shares, what your outlook on SKUL is, or whether you have a better place for your money I will just tell you my story because I cannot give you a recommendation without more info.

    I have always sold puts on well-established large companies with a strong history of maintaining or increasing dividends. I also look at fundamentals to see if I feel the stock is undervalued and if so then I will sell puts on it. Great times to take action usually occur when there are pullbacks due to news, such as earnings misses, where investors overreact and send the stock down to undervalued territory. I make money thanks to these panicked sellers. The earnings miss is not a game-changer, the stock will eventually go back up and hopefully I can sell a put that expires worthless. If the stock depreciates and I am put on the stock I am prepared to hold it knowing I bought it at a great price and have dividends to fall back on until it appreciates. Hopefully in the meantime I can sell some calls for nice premiums as well. For instance, this last month I made ~ 3.4% return on the money I invested on MSFT and INTC weekly puts. The premiums were generally 0.5-1.0%. I was actually put on each once during the past month but turned around and sold a weekly call for the same strike price as the put and received premiums of 0.5-1.0% as well. Both times the stock was called away after that week. I will have INTC 20 and 20.5 puts and MSFT 26.5 puts expiring tomorrow likely OTM which is great. A short (about 90-100 pages) and simple book which explains this strategy is "Beating Wall Street 1% at a Time"by KJ Finn which I bought for $9.99 on my amazon kindle. I recommend reading it.

    SKUL is the second growth stock I have tried to use this strategy on because I am trying to diversify a bit. The bad part is that there are no dividends to fall back on. But the premiums are so juicy that I can lower my cost basis quite quickly. As I said earlier I sold the SKUL 11 put pre-earnings for a 5% premium, or 0.55/share when the stock was ~12.50. This lowered my cost basis to 10.45. I figured they would at least meet earnings expectations and the price would likely stay above 11 or probably no lower than 10 at which point I could sell a call for another great premium, or better yet the stock would stay above 11 and the put expire worthless for a 5% profit in one month. The risk/reward seemed very good. I was half right, unfortunately I would rather have been right about the price it went to. In hindsight I made a mistake with this stock. At the time I sold the 11 put there was a 1% premium on the 9 put and typically I look for 1% premiums. Why? Because 1% premiums will yield me a double-digit annualized return which is what I seek. I was too greedy. I should have sold the 9 put to really lower my initial cost basis OR waited for the earnings catalyst to pass and if the stock did fall due to panicked selling I could have sold a nice 6 or 7 put. In fact I could have increased my position by selling those 6 or 7 puts but I did not want to increase my exposure on SKUL, especially since I am still experimenting here. Had it been MSFT or INTC I would have likely increased my position. But I am not panicking because I still think there is a profit to be made. Meeting analyst expectations is not a game-changer in my opinion and therefore I am still bullish on this stock for the future. Its fundamentals are still really good compared to its industry. The P/E ratio, PEG ratio, P/B, P/S all scream undervalued although P/C is a worry. This lack of cash is not a great sign, but then again SKUL has no debt. I sold a Dec call for .20/share (1.8% premium) so my cost basis is currently 10.25. If I can sell another call for greater than .25 I can potentially sell subsequent calls at the 10 strike price but that could eat away profits due to the $1 drop in strike price. I will wait a week or two to see what the stock does and see if I can sell a Jan 11 call for .20 or more. If I can sell another 11 call and the stock appreciates above 11 then I make a very nice profit, somewhere around at least a 30% annualized return (I already have 6.8% from the put and call I already sold and after January this will be 3 months investing money in it). If the stock doesn't appreciate then I will take what call I can get and wait patiently. If the company continues to grow at such a good clip investors will eventually drive the stock back up to 11 or higher and likely within the next year. I will then take my profit when it hits 11 or above. The key is patience. If there is a game-changer I can always cut my losses and exit. They all cannot be winners. But I will be much better off than if I had bought the stock at 12.50 when I sold that initial put. Luckily I only have a small position on this stock because I am learning how, and if, my option strategy can be applied to growth stocks.

 
SKUL
8.94+0.04(+0.45%)Dec 24 1:00 PMEST

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