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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

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  • A Yahoo! User Jan 23, 2013 3:48 PM Flag

    When are pigs going to fly?

    Thanks for your thoughts Corey. Getting a rise out of people may be their primary objective I suppose. I find that a bit hard to believe but then maybe that's because that sort of behaviour is so far removed from my own mindset. Anyway, agreed that it's best to ignore them, unfortunately it doesn't seem to make their posts disappear (Yahoo probably does a better job of that!!!)! I couldn't really care if they're long or short but shame on them if that really is their motivation.

    The risk of the company changing strategy due to declining SP is certainly a valid one. Here's a question, do you think a company is best ignoring it's share price/stock market performance and concentrate on day to day business, or should it acknowledge SP issues and try and tackle them? SKUL certainly seems to be taking the former option to date! Who knows, necessity being the mother of invention, perhaps the SP troubles may provide more incentive/drive to management to keep the company going full steam ahead and eventually prove the shorts wrong. Or maybe that's the job of all these free bar parties I keep hearing about!

    From my experience, OP has been nothing but helpful to anyone that's asked so props to him for that. As for strategy, you hit the nail on the head when you say, as long as you get your desired return, for a risk level acceptable to you, that's what's important. Long/Short/TA/Value/Growth is all much of a muchness, whatever floats your boat as they say.

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    • coreylynnh@sbcglobal.net coreylynnh Jan 23, 2013 6:34 PM Flag

      I suppose they could be delusionary that their psycho-babble is read by all of the shareholders of the 15 million or so stocks, but I think it is more likely for entertainment. I suppose just rattling the bushes to get a few critters to jump out may be good enough for them.

      As for whether or not a company should focus on its stock price or business, I think it is always a combination of both and favors one side or another at different times of a business's life. I feel more inclined to say if management believes in its business model, its growth, and its profitability then nothing needs to be changed except for continuous opportunites to tweak the business model to optimize margins and take advantage of opportunities. I also feel if a company takes care of its employees and customers then the stock price will take care of itself eventually. However, if a company is looking for some quick cash for rapid growth/expansion then having a strong stock price provides another avenue to get it. Also, in the case of SKUL where the stock price is being manipulated it may be in the best interest to look for ways to challenge the manipulation. But I also feel a growth company does not want to use too many of its resources to fight that type of war.

      I have been critical of OP only because I have not seen any information that has given me notice that I should make one trade or another for a profit. His analysis always gives two possibilities, up or down, and possibly a third to accumulate. I won't rehash my thoughts, but he very well may be a "day trader on steroids" as someone called him. I can't say I understand his methodology, but now I have some resources to try to get a working knowledge of it. Unfortunately I have had no time to even read a word of it, but I will get to it some day.

      • 3 Replies to coreylynnh
      • coreylynnh@sbcglobal.net coreylynnh Jan 24, 2013 12:16 PM Flag

        By the way, OP summed it up much better than I did. They are trash talking. And the only reason one has to trash talk is to get a rise out of the other person.

      • Good to hear your views again Corey. Agreed that good business, in essence, is about treating customers and staff well. If SKUL can do this, as to me they look to be, then the stock should become more valuable with time, provided they demonstrate their ability to continue turning a profit. Paying attention to earnings reports will be critical going forward to #$%$ this. Also agree that fighting that war could be costly, and detrimental to the overalll business.

        Regarding TA strategy, I follow some of the basics of what OP is saying but think I'd be lost trying to apply much of it in reality. Without practice that is. Obviously he's had a lot of practice and fully understands his system. At heart it's mathematics and probablilities, much like poker. It think it's fairly standard practice to forecast multiple scenarios/possiblities, and have a strategy planned for every outcome. As I understand, that's the basis of the algorithims that most investment banks utilise these days. That kind of makes sense to me but I don't have the experience to execute. As you say it's probably a bit much for most retail investors to take on, but certainly I'm going to try and watch out for SOS/SOWs and try to use that to inform my entry/exit to see if that can fine tune my returns.

        Cheers. I intend to wait for the next earnings report, and now that they've lowered expectations, speculate you might see some upside with a beat and perhaps change the longterm trend.

      • User;

        I think the affect of posts here on moving the stock price is so minute as to be almost zero. Therefore there is no good reason for trying to trash talk it one way or the other. But, being a trader and playing both sides of the market I can tell you that the fundies, who are always bullish, are the most unreasonable and obstinate (not all but most). The shorts who posted recently have, I'm almost sure, been down the road of trying to reason with fundies. Therefore they don't waste their time anymore. But they see all the ignorant babble and can't resist posting some trash talk. I totally understand it.

        Corey,

        My methodology is broad but the core of it is old. It has very little to do with the fundamentals of the company itself, in fact it is better to ignore most of it as a distraction. I have books that talk about this dating back to 1800's when the "high tech stocks" were the railroad stocks. It was refined and practiced by the likes of Jesse Livermore and Richard Wyckoff in the early 1900's into and thru the great depression.

        Technical analysis, and by that I mean a knowledge and experience of market dynamics, is a must-have skill in ANY time frame not just day trading or swing trading but also in position trading. But you won't realize that until you learn more. Often when people don't know they resort to name calling or shouting over those who do. So I appreciate your tempered candor.

        What is trading all about? It's about recognizing trend changes, plain and simple. On the longest time frame SKUL is in a downtrend, but within that downtrend are smaller trends and within those even smaller trends; and it has recently been mostly in very tight trading ranges. In a range you have to wait for information. There is nothing to do until the market shows its hand. So when you deride me by saying I "always give two possibilities", you are missing it big time. I mean that IS the object right, to be aware of what to look for; to be able to identify and act on a trend change?

        I've been watching this stock for a long time, longer than you probably know, and I can tell you there has NEVER been an opportunity for a long position trade. Swing trades yes, but not a longer term position trades. Anyone who said over the life of this stock, even now, that they are "in it for the long term", whatever that means, was and is just plain ignorant. And believe me, there were plenty of cheerleaders and (_)_) -wipes when I was telling folks to bail at $16. Well they've all been humbled now. You see, there has NEVER EVER been a sign of strength in the longer term trend; that is on the weekly or monthly chart. In the longer time frame there has always been supply in the background, form DAY ONE. And in that situation you don't buy the dips you sell the reactions; basic technical know how and common sense.

 
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