Jan 25th Piper Jaffray downgrades.
Jan 25th Ptarmigan LLC (aka Rick Alden's trust) registers 507,000 shares
Jan 26th Rick Alden registers 72,000 shares
Jan 28th CEO Andrus sells 20,000 shares (auto sale)
and the latest news.....
Jan 28th CEO Andrus registers and sells 5,000 shares
Jan 28th JA Cropston, LLC sells 15,000 shares
Granted most of these are small potatoes, but still, why now? But it's the Rick Alden registration of 579,000 total shares that makes them all together smell of a big pile of hog manure.
Piper Jaffray as you recall lowered their one-year target from $15 to $7. Well that was essentially hit 2 trading days later at $6.98. You put it altogether and it just smells like SKUL is headed for the basement apartment of the schmit house.
Me, I'm just on the sidelines waiting for a sign of strength. Who knows how long that will take. But yet tonight I hear on this board, "I'm sticking with it until the fundamentals tell me otherwise" and "I still like the story". What story, may I ask are you guys reading here?
SKUL is in a bear market; that is obvious. In bear markets all the news is bad news; even good news is perceived as bad news. Like earning reports. SKUL has had otherwise excellent reports but the big money takes it down anyway in accord with their positions.......in a bear market all the news is bad news. That is what I'm trying to explain. That is why fundamentals don't mean squat.
Someday, it may turn and the fundamentalists will be geniouses again but the reality will be that "all the news is good news" because that's the way the big money is positioned and playing it. But that's not the situation right now and won't be until the big money is fully positioned on the long side. They will let you know when they are fully loaded long, and ready for you to take it up, with a sign of strength in the right hand side of a trading range.
As you can tell I'm not feeling good about this stock. It doesn't matter to me what it does, since I'm in wait mode but I feel bad for some of you thinking your stuck, especially Mike who has posted how many shares he has, which I won't re-post, but suffice it to say it is indeed a farm. Technically here's my problem:
When it came down 16% on January 2nd (the market gapped up by the way), that could have been a selling climax, but no, I don't think now that it was because it is spending too much time at the lows. You see after a selling climax two things can happen after the panic has been stopped, either an automatic rally or a lateral move. It went into a lateral move for 4 days and only when Bloomberg fabricated a buyout rumor did it rally. That rally should have lasted a few days to a week at least. It was a one day wonder and it was weak, there was severe selling pressure as evidenced by the volume and the squat bar, and since then it has fallen back to the lows and gone lateral again for nearly 3 weeks. When a stock simply goes lateral it is FAR MORE LIKELY to continue the downtrend than if it has a good rally.
The month of January will be the highest monthly volume of record. HIGH VOLUME LOWS GET RETESTED......period.. So, $6.34 will get retested. Hopefully in February. But that test could be another 16% drop which would put it down to about $5.50....ouch.
With one day left to trade this month, the February monthly pivot point is $6.95. The R2 level is $8.40 and the S2 level is.....$5.50. Since it has gone lateral , the $5.50 seems more likely.
Even if, between now and just after earnings, it should pop a cork, it would come back down and retest the top of the range, $7.40. If it does that on less than 2M shares, then it would be a low risk buy. So why hold it thru earnings? The risk is incredible. Piper has capped it at $7. Rick Alden is selling over a 1/2 million shares at sub $7. Why would YOU take that risk?