OP: You nailed me on the head, give me exact solutions!!!! But in all seriousness, I am a chemical engineer so with chemistry there is not as much exactness as there exists for a machine or a structure. In a chemical process you need to know which indicators/variables have the biggest influence and monitor those, same as with trading.
All the analysis you gave may be out the window, perhaps, with the CEO news. You posted it looked like initial reaction was bullish, but after hours it is down a significant amount. It is interesting the high volume hit at the end of the day and then the big news conveniently came out after hours. The news keeps rolling in after a significant move...............
I didn't have my news feed turned on and somewhat distracted with work. So, the news came out at 3:36 central time; after hours? Okay.
Yeah, this is big news. Not the "lower range of guidance" part but the CEO stepping down. But then again maybe that's not such a big deal either. I'm sure Alden has always been micro-managing anyway. AH trading is down, but it's light. The weekly S3 is at $6.06 call it $6.
I am curious what OP has to say too. Finishes up on an average volume day when the broader market was down. Reached to 6.37 on lower volume then had big volume to end the day for a nice gain. Does this end of day buying mean the big boys are going to start taking it to the remaining dumb money shorts, or is this a thrust up to get more dumb money long so they can short again at a high price?
Well, Corey knows how us engineers appreciate exact solutions, but of course that can put us at a disadvantage when it comes to trading. The question is, is 3 cents close enough to call it a test? Could be. Clearly it rejected the lows at the close today.
On the Monthly there is no doubt the volume should be lower.
On the Weekly we have 2.99M shares so far with one day to go, versus 2.71 last week and 3.08 the week before. So it's pushing on that 6.37 with higher volume than last week but it'll need slightly more than a million shares tomorrow to take out the prior week.
On the Daily it looks good. 657k vs. 802k on Feb 1st and 800k on Jan 25th. They just could not take it down and so took it back into the upper range, above the Jan 2nd low of $6.55. I think once the shorts eyeballed that, they covered en masse.
So it is back in the upper range which is divided into two equal ranges, $6.55 to $6.98 and $6.98 to $7.40 The high bar in the range has a high of $7.40 and low of $7.05 with 2.24M shares traded. So it'll have trouble getting into that bar; getting above $7.05.
Anyway I would venture to say it'll head up and test $6.98, say $7 now. I guess we'll see if we get some follow thru. The daily and 5-day pivot for tomorrow is $6.54. We closed above it and should open above it tomorrow. I'll let it come back into the pivot and buy some there unless it's coming down hard.
Don't want to see too much volume tomorrow, enuf to bust into that 7.05 to 7.40 bar, since that would hurt us on the weekly and then it would have retest the lows again.