Let's recap. We had a massive Selling Climax back on March 8th, then an automatic rally and then 7 months of trading range where the big operators maximized their positions and then Friday September 20th it jumped over the Creek (the upper/resistance line of the trading range) and now........and now it should retest near ICE. The ICE area is between $5.84 and $6.11. The ICE is very strong. You could drive an overloaded semi-truck across it. It is NOT going to break.
This retest or Last Point of Support is the safest, lowest risk, entry point, you will ever see again for a long, long time. The only caveat is that if the daily volume looks like it will top 7.4 million shares then hold off.....that's like impossible right? That was the volume March 8th and that is now SUPPORT.
Fibonacci confluence is between $6 and $6.13. I'd buy a little higher. Don't miss this one.
If you want to see my chart, there is one at : hotstockmarket. Put the dot kom and then the following:
or just go to hotstockmarket and select "Forums" and then "Stock Message Boards NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX" and then search for "SKUL".
Hi onepoint, I have been reading through these posts for about 2 months now and I like your technical analysis. I am new to investing and not so good at technical analysis. I am curious to know what is the price target you expect by December 2013? I know nobody can predict accurately but I would like to have a technical expert view on this. I have some call options for Jan 2014 at strike price $8 and would like to know your view on this so that I have some idea as to hold on to it or sell it before it reaches the strike price. Any information from your side would be of great help. Thanks!
Hi Gader, mind you I'm a swing trader but one technique I use for that is time symmetry which may work for you as well. So, using $6 and $8 as your benchmarks, observe that the last time it was at $8 was December 31, 2012 and on the way down it hit $6 on February 8th then went sideways until the selling climax where it fell thru the $6 ice on March 8th. So what is that? About 3 months and 1 week from $8 to breaking the $6 ice.
On the way up, it jumped over the $6 creek on September 20th. So I'd say a conservative GUESS would be 3 months and 1 week from the "jump over the creek" or about December 31, 2013. So far your golden.
OP, Thanks for your technical analysis and the chart on hotstockmarket. I am loaded for bear and ready to get back in the game on this one. If only I had not gambled on this horse in 2012 spring. Hopefully we will see a nice rebound sooner then later... Still haven't decided on my exit point. I suspect that will be decided for me sooner then later, but in the meantime we should see this horse run a mile and 1/2 instead of the 5 furlong race it has been entered in. :)
It strikes me that this SKUL market is a microcosm of the stock market in general. I've been watching and trading this thing for about 2 years and for all of that time, except the last week or so, was telling people here, "SKUL is not a long-term buy" and getting some rather nasty replies to say the least. But what I was saying way back from the very beginning was to wait for this set up that is approaching NOW. The Last Point of Support, the Lowest Risk Long Entry.
It's been interesting, I've seen people come and go, all with their pet theories about why the stock was going to the moon. And I just kept saying things like, " I don't care what you think about the fundamentals, it's got supply in the background" and "demand needs to prove itself" and "that's not going to happen until there is a long drawn out trading range". I told them that this stock will not go up until they had all disappeared and this board went near-silent.
And now here we are. Where are all those people so certain that the fundamentals were flawless, or the shorts would be squeezed? Why aren't they here to buy it now? It's incredible. And it strikes me that I've witnessed first hand what I've known all along, that most people should not be in the market; that they are misguided and too emotional to stand against the professionals in this game. I'm not saying I'm a pro, but I am saying I think I understand the game.
I think it was Livermore who said something like, "it is easy to make money in stocks.....buy low and sell high........the hard part is knowing when they're low." Well, SKUL is low. This is the time to make money in this stock.
The stock went up from last week. It seems somebody buy good amount of shares when the market opens and bring up the price but the stock price should not go down. I am expecting not to go lower than $6.
The company is doing well with their marketing (I check their website). I even see they are following SEP process. SEP process helps with their decision making. They need to release more news.
Michael thanks for the information. OP, I really don’t spend time to put your data in the graph to understand what you are talking about. I should. It is good to know you are positive about this stock.
2 years ago fundamentals were good and the short interest was unheard of. this was ripe to blow thru the roof and actually started after a er only to get beat up when future er were lowered. well, the rest is history fundamentals did a complete 180. they way i see it, it was heads or tails. you choose the short side and they were right. at one point the stock was undervalued even when it was $17. stop patting yourself on the back as your hand will get tired. now you scream buy when the market cap is o mere 150 mil and it's obvious astro alone probably has that valuation. new management has a proven track record as the last DID NOT.