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Cimatron Ltd. Message Board

  • stalkvalue stalkvalue Oct 15, 2013 1:10 AM Flag

    Voxljet VJET IPO priced by underwiters with a 91 Million Dollars Market Cap

    This represents an approximate 50% premium to Cimatron's valuation despite the fact that CIMT's

    revenue for 2012 came in at approximately 43 Million compared to VJET 11 million. Of course, VJET

    is the the 3d HARDWARE business as opposed to CIMT's integrated 3D SOFTWARE approach to the

    same business. Please let me disabuse anyone of the notion that I have the two sides of this same coin

    confused with one another, I do not. It's just that one side of this industry CANNOT prosper without

    the corollary, it's just not possible. While it is true there's been a plethora of media hype about 3-D

    printing, to date there has been a preoccupation solely with the hardware side of the equation. Leading

    the charge IMO has been such off Wall St pundits as The Streetd0tCom and The M0tley F00l's almost

    schoolgirl infatuation with DDD, SSYS and more recently XONE.

    Industry experts who've been around additive manufacturing for years are bullish on forward growth.

    Estimates for a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) in 3-D printing between 25-30% for the next

    5 years are common by industry experts, analysts, and insiders. To quite “Terry Wohlers”, a leading

    industry consultant, speaker, and publisher of Wholers Report 2013, he has noted that “the market for

    3-D printing in 2012, consisting of all products and services worldwide, grew at a CAGR of 28.6% to $2.2

    billion, is expected to hit $4 billion in 2015 and approach $6 billion by 2017” .

    I see CIMT catching up with their hardware counterparts and then some. In keeping with this notion I

    place a valuation for CIMT at LEAST on par with the valuation the underwriters have placed on our lesser

    earning peer VJET. That place us at 9.50 and that's my LOW estimate if, and only IF their IPO does NOT

    see a meteoric rise from day one.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • An excellent post. Thank you.

      Indeed, as you have pointed out, 3D needs both hard & software. My question is, do they have to be equal in earnings and revenue potential and profit margins.

      Once again, thank you for your posts.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to pfein2012
      • Thanks for your words of encouragement pfein2012
        As far as your questions go, no I don't think Hardware and Software will be equal in earnings and profit margins. I actually believe that as system software developers, CIMT enjoys a 20% advantage over Hardware developers and even if interpreted as simply 'application developers" they enjoy a 7% advantage. So put those metrics to work. Right now the financial media has all eyes focused upon hardware as it has come down dramatically in price but in my opinion that isnt where the prize lies - which of course is why I recommend this stock. In short, we grow as DDD, SSYS, XONE and now VJET grow, only at a 10% to 20% premium. Try searching yardeni forwardprofitmargins to see the S&P 500 Sectors & Industries Profit Margins (yahoo wont let me post the link). System software ranks the 2nd to the highest in terms of margins at 30% just under Biotechs 32% margins, while application software appears to average 17% vs industrial machinery manufacturers at 9.6%. The real question is which exact category as defined by Yardeni, does Cimatron fall under? According to the industry experts quoted on the MotleyF00|, the 3D printer market is growing at an annual growth rate of 80%. So once again, put those metrics to work.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy