There was a report that total mattress sales were up in total for all companies in July, however for TPX....
The International sleep products association came out with a monthly report that mattress sales were up almost 5% in July....However, there are several mattress companies, and it's not clear who's sales were up or down. The street seemed to react today with somewhat of a short squeeze today by sending TPX higher.
However, the mattress sales report was for July sales. TPX reported their earnings on July 26th, and warned of lower sales and reduced guidance for the year. I would think if their sales were trending higher, they would have known by July 26th. I won't go long the stock until I see a couple of quarters of clarity.
(The following was the repost from theflyonthewall after their earnings report.....)
July 26, 2013
12:42 EDT TPX Tempur-Pedic plummets after disappointing earnings, lowered guidance
Shares of bedding manufacturer Tempur-Pedic are falling after the company reported second quarter results that trailed consensus estimates and lowered its full-year outlook. WHAT'S NEW: Last night, Tempur-Pedicreported Q2 adjusted EPS of 36c and revenue of $660.6M. Analysts' consensus expectations were for EPS of 40c and $662.8M. WHAT'S NOTABLE: The company lowered its FY13 EPS and revenue view to $2.25-$2.40 and $2.435B-$2.45B, respectively, versus consensus of $2.75 and $2.5B. The company said, "The steps we have taken to return Tempur North America to growth are appropriate, but are taking longer than expected. As a result, we are lowering our financial outlook for the full year." ANALYST REACTION: This morning, KeyBanc lowered its price target on the shares to $53 from $58 following the disappointing Q2 report. The firm maintained its Buy rating given the Sealy integration tracking ahead of plan and the long-term recover in the housing industry. PRICE ACTION: In early afternoon trading, Tempur-Pedic fell $4.93, or 11.75%, to $37.03 on more than twice the average daily volume.
Tempur has a good product, but there are several "as good" or "better" alternatives out there. And the big problem is that the other alternatives are all much less costly--hundreds of dollars less costly. Give me a Serta iComfort or Simmons Comfortpedic anytime over a Tempur. The feel is better, they sleep cooler, and they are much, much less costly.
You "won't go back until after a couple quarters of clarity"? You reference july 26th as the relevant date for knowing what sales will be for the quarter with an entirely new line-up and comprehensive training update just underway and the execs having sales data maybe all the way up through July 4th weekend which was actually the sell through weekebnd for end of july and for which they have acknowledged they didn;t have the floor or sales training done by then? Not. The subsequent 12 weeks are what will matter, and now we have early data points that mattress stores are experiencing a sales pickup, contemporaneously with the banks reporting that credit card debt was reduced last quarter and now there is an emerging trend of increased retail sales.
But you probably should sit on the sidelines for "a couple quarters of clarity"... by then everyone will see that TPX led the sector higher with ramping sales of the new product line-up and flexing its floor muscle with the best of the mid to lux mattress line-ups in the business. The stock will also be pushing $60 by EOY, thet will be a good time for the conservative guys to come "back" to the stock. LOL
As for short covering? We'll give you a hint... we are not the only fund pulling offset short hedges last week. That'll leave just the chumps who think TPX is a good short out there to have their gnads shorn for the next several weeks.
"We are not the only fund" Who's we? You do realize that TPX warned on sales for the rest of 2013, right? And you do realize that lower priced competition mattress stores are where consumers, if any, will buy?
Emerging trend of increased retail sales? Consumer discretionary stocks are DOA. The consumer is tapped out. They're buying some cars, but retail overall is very weak. The competition from MFRM, SCSS, are headwinds for TPX.
Finally, integration issues with the Sealy acquisition will weigh on earnings for sometime. I would say maybe late in 2014, early 2015 TPX may start to recover. Until then, do you really want to hold a stock that's been trading below all the major technical averages?