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The Home Depot, Inc. Message Board

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  • stockfisher2025 stockfisher2025 Oct 11, 2003 8:39 PM Flag

    Didn't mean to run anybody off ....

    >>HUI Index up 483%

    That's the best reason not to get in now. People that chase last years winners usually get burned. Van Wagoner Emerging Growth fund was up an eye popping 291.2% in 1999. If you had put $10,000 in on the first day of that year by 12/31/02 your "investment" was worth $4,419. Could run another 500% but history shows it's not likely. Sectors go in and out of favor, just ask the growth investors that own HD stock.

    Oh, and one other thing about gold, in 1935 the price of an ounce of gold was $35. Today? http://www.goldnewsweekly.com/index.asp?CC=141
    Not the kind of return I look for in an investment. Thanks for the informative message.

    Mr Buffett, what's your take on gold at the moment?

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    • That's what makes a market.

      And gives us the opportunity to take our hard earned $$ and place them where they will do the most good. I love this country.

      I don't understand your comparison's however. You are comparing the top of a 15 year advance and a 5 year bubble not seen since the South Sea, and Tulip thing, to advances by a sector recovering from a 20 year bear. The companies left are lean and mean, and the wake up of demand of value over paper promises could prove to be interesting to watch. At no time in history has borrowed money been easier to obtain and the average home buyer is 25. Some buying because it's easier to buy (no down payment, as it's rolled into the loan) than rent an apartment where we have credit requirements. Yes I own some.

      This is a bubble because of huge credit expansion. The bigger it gets, the harder it will fall, and those who depend on it's expansion and take it as 'normal' will be hurt the worst. Many analists have never seen a REAL bear market even today. There is overcapacity worldwide and some companies NEED to go broke. It's nature and healthy. You speak of history but have only given 1 figure. $35 and 1935. That ignores quite a lot of 'action' as the economy has changed many times over those years.

      I'm not a cheerleader for Gold/HD/SPX/EBAY/nor any others. Just pointing out some realities as I see them.

      BTW, if you look back at the Silver price, that spike in early '98 was because Buffet bought. Near the same time, Gates (yeah the hi-teck guy) bought controlling interest in several mines. Look through history and do some homework. One ratio that is really important (if you are a long term kinda person or like to be on the side of major trends is the DOW/GOLD ratio) Do it and look at monthly/weeklies. Then bring your observations, I would be happy to discuss them.

      GrnDlphn

 
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