I gotta go with teetech on this one. You're really generalizing the link between Merc and Mac. Similar size? Yes. Same market? Yes. Similar operating style? Not even close. Mac did way more risky lending, got far deeper into development loans, and was far less proactive in getting its NPA's under control when things really started to head south. I also expect better news than in Q4 '09 and Q1 '10, but not because of Merc's earnings news, mainly because the last two quarters were so dreadful. Macatawa will become undercapitalized by the FDIC standards this quarter unless they really surprise us all, while Mercantile is still well-capitalized. Mac is under a consent order with the regulators, Mercantile is not. That alone puts a lot of restriction on what Macatawa can do. Mercantile doesn't have that problem right now.
I'm not saying there won't be an improvement this quarter, and I'm not saying your prediction is going to be wrong. But trying to draw a simple parallel between these two based on market and asset size really misses the mark. There are just more important things to look at that aren't in the first two paragraphs of an earnings press release.