Potential upside of 44.4% exists for NII Holdings, based on a current level of $6.86 and analysts' average consensus price target of $9.90. NII Holdings shares should encounter resistance at the 200-day moving average (MA) of $8.51 and support at the 50-day MA of $6.27.
But analysts are behind the curve regarding NIHD. Citi is the only one with accurate #'s.
"Citigroup commented, "We are downgrading NIHD shares to Sell/High Risk (3H) from Neutral/High Risk (2H), and cutting our 12M target price to $5.00 from $7.50. First, the move to 3G push-to-talk (PPT) services from pure PTT will continue to face challenges in 2013. Second, our 2012-14 EBITDA estimates are 9%, 18%, and 21% below consensus (Bloomberg, November 7th ). Last, valuation looks unattractive at 4.3x and 5.7x EV/EBITDA 2012E-13E in light of the worrisome 3.9x net debt to EBITDA in Q412E."