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NII Holdings Inc. Message Board

  • nuljava75 nuljava75 Oct 31, 2013 10:55 AM Flag

    NIHD bond trading the last 5 days was the tip off

    i can not believe how stupid i am that i did not think of buying puts ahead of this call. stock holders could have done the same. if you read my previous threads -- i am a bond holder and was very concerned because the bond prices of the 2016 NIHD debt was tanking. there were huge $1M blocks getting dumped at will on the ask price.

    let me emphasize i have no agenda here whatsoever. the reality is, if you stock holders are safe, then i as a debt holder am golden and basically on auto pilot. but now this is a different reality all together.

    the 2016 NIHD bonds cratered overnight and are now selling at $76's. there were still some $1M blocks hitting the bid price today. i have been through this time and time again. i think though NIHD is the most hopeful case out of some of past holdings. they have a spectrum portfolio, tangible assets, etc. but the fact that these bonds are only 3 years til redemption and basically giving the company a 75% chance is not good.

    i can tell you this from experience; all this buyout chatter etc --- someone coming in and rescuing us and paying a 3 or 4X multiple against the current stock price almost never happens. "its gotta happen its gotta happen" i have been on many sinking ships and the only time i got bailed out was with Ameren Energy. Dynegy came in out of nowhere and bought their assets. when something has gotta happen, it typically does not.

    the new paradigm is this - when a competitor wants assets of company Y -- and if company Y is in big trouble i.e. buring cash, lots of debt. they are not going to buy company Y. they are wait for company Y to fall into an abyss and then swoop in and buy the assets at pennies on the dollar. this is the reality. i did have one big hope here in NIHD spectrum portfolio that DISH could possibly be interested in that. DISH is on a buying spree right now bidding up and buy spectrum like its going out of style.

    has anyone listened to the conference call?? any input? i have to read transcript.

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    • nuljava75--I decided your 10s might be a better deal than my 8.875s, so I nibbled at some of those this morning, at 78 cents. The most recent multi-million institutional trades are taking place at 78 cents, so I figured I could get in, at least at the same price that the big boys were buying and selling huge blocks at. Geeez, they are down 7 cents on the day--ouch!!!

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Earnings were terrible but we all knew that
      Mexico was bad , rest was ok
      The silver lining and most important thing is that liquidity concerns are addressed and nothing to worry for a while
      They are on right track at least with lte
      Valuation comes into play and I don think we go any lower

      • 1 Reply to ash_the_guru
      • thanks ash. appreciate your input. i will probably look at adding some more debt here. let me just let everyone know in case you did not. these 2016 NIHD bonds have a whopping 10% coupon. right now they are trading at 77 cents on the dollar so best case scenario if you things work out or if they can just hold on, you are talking about an annual yield here in the 15-17% range. not bad. guys that are loading the stock might also want to consider the bonds as an alternative. if the stock price gets low enough, i might consider adding calls myself on the stock.

 
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